NFL Picks - Week 8

BUFFALO (+3.5) over Houston. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ryan Fitzpatrick era in Buffalo. I like Lynch in this game as he finally puts Fred Jackson into the background. I also like the fact that Buffalo put away Carolina last week, and Houston is overrated after last week's win.

NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) over Miami. In this matchup, I would always take the home team. The Jets looked much better against the Raiders last week, and I think that continues in this game. If the weather is bad, I think Miami struggles in cold New Jersey.

San Francisco (+13) over INDIANAPOLIS. I think Indy can win this game by 14, but not much more. That is the major reason I am taking San Fran here. Other reasons? Reggie Wayne's injury, the emergence of Alex Smith, the addition of Michael Crabtree, and the fact that the Niners have beaten some good teams this year and should have beat Minny (their only real outlier is the Atlanta game).

Seattle (+10) over DALLAS. Dallas is too inconsistent this year to take them -10 in this game. Yes, Miles Austin is on fire and gives Romo a legit passing target. However, I think the rest of his season unfolds like Steve Smith's (NYG) - a couple of huge games, but eventually the defense begins to scheme on him and he becomes "solid" not "superstar". I also like Seattle's passing attack enough to cover this spread.

CHICAGO (-13) over Cleveland. The Browns have covered this spread against winning teams 0 times this year, and tied it once (Steelers). They have lost by more than 13 points to Minnesota, Denver, Baltimore, and Green Bay. Chicago is a winning team and continues this streak. Plus they are pissed off after last week's ass whipping. I will say that Cleveland is unfortunate so far this year for playing so many good teams.

Denver (+3) over BALTIMORE. Baltimore just hasn't played that well against good teams this year. They covered against San Diego, but wouldn't have covered against Cinci, Minny, or New England. Granted, two of those three games were on the road against great teams. Denver, however, is a great team (undefeated in fact) and I think they push at worst here.

PHILADELPHIA (pick) over New York Giants. The GMen haven't played well against good teams this year. Against teams with a winning record, they are 1-2 and their one win was by 2 points over Dallas. Philly is a tough place to play and having McCoy as a backup to Westbrook won't hurt them much. Their WR corp is explosive and should provide at least one big TD against a banged up Giants secondary.

SAN DIEGO (-17.5) over Oakland. I think the game Oakland played against the Eagles was a total outlier. Getting 17.5 points this year, Oakland is 3-4 this year, including a win against the spread week 1 against these Chargers. I think the Chargers are a better team now, and they are playing at home. Rivers has a huge day here and Russell is pulled at half time.

Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE. This is my lock of the week. The Titans haven't won a game, their owner wants Young while their coach wants the Alcoholic, and their defense is dreadful. I think MJD, Garrard, and Holt have big games here. The only chance the Titans have is if Chris Johnson has a huge day (100+ yards, 2 TDs) and whichever QB they choose steps up.

ARIZONA (-10) over Carolina. Another solid pick here. Arizona has proven that they are legit and will likely avoid the "Super Bowl loser curse" this year. Carolina has Jake Delhomme and lost by more than 10 points to the Bills last week. Steve Smith might kill Delhomme this offseason. I think the line in Vegas is 5-1.

Minnesota (+3) over GREEN BAY. Against winning teams this year, giving 3 points, Green Bay would be 1-1-1. In other words, this game is a toss up. I wouldn't bet on it, at all. If Favre shows up - the Vikings cover. If Rodgers plays like Favre in '96, the Packers win. Ultimately Favre's play and the play of the Green Bay O-Line will determine who wins this one.

Atlanta (+10) over NEW ORLEANS. The Superdome is a very tough place to play, but I think 10 points is too much here. A better line would be 7-8 points, in which case I might bet on the Saints. Reggie Bush's prediction of an undefeated regular season works against the Saints in this case and Atlanta has another one of those "well maybe they are one of the best teams in the NFC" games.

Last Week: 7-7
Year-to-Date: 53-34-1