BUFFALO (+3.5) over Houston. Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Ryan Fitzpatrick era in Buffalo. I like Lynch in this game as he finally puts Fred Jackson into the background. I also like the fact that Buffalo put away Carolina last week, and Houston is overrated after last week's win.
NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) over Miami. In this matchup, I would always take the home team. The Jets looked much better against the Raiders last week, and I think that continues in this game. If the weather is bad, I think Miami struggles in cold New Jersey.
San Francisco (+13) over INDIANAPOLIS. I think Indy can win this game by 14, but not much more. That is the major reason I am taking San Fran here. Other reasons? Reggie Wayne's injury, the emergence of Alex Smith, the addition of Michael Crabtree, and the fact that the Niners have beaten some good teams this year and should have beat Minny (their only real outlier is the Atlanta game).
Seattle (+10) over DALLAS. Dallas is too inconsistent this year to take them -10 in this game. Yes, Miles Austin is on fire and gives Romo a legit passing target. However, I think the rest of his season unfolds like Steve Smith's (NYG) - a couple of huge games, but eventually the defense begins to scheme on him and he becomes "solid" not "superstar". I also like Seattle's passing attack enough to cover this spread.
CHICAGO (-13) over Cleveland. The Browns have covered this spread against winning teams 0 times this year, and tied it once (Steelers). They have lost by more than 13 points to Minnesota, Denver, Baltimore, and Green Bay. Chicago is a winning team and continues this streak. Plus they are pissed off after last week's ass whipping. I will say that Cleveland is unfortunate so far this year for playing so many good teams.
Denver (+3) over BALTIMORE. Baltimore just hasn't played that well against good teams this year. They covered against San Diego, but wouldn't have covered against Cinci, Minny, or New England. Granted, two of those three games were on the road against great teams. Denver, however, is a great team (undefeated in fact) and I think they push at worst here.
PHILADELPHIA (pick) over New York Giants. The GMen haven't played well against good teams this year. Against teams with a winning record, they are 1-2 and their one win was by 2 points over Dallas. Philly is a tough place to play and having McCoy as a backup to Westbrook won't hurt them much. Their WR corp is explosive and should provide at least one big TD against a banged up Giants secondary.
SAN DIEGO (-17.5) over Oakland. I think the game Oakland played against the Eagles was a total outlier. Getting 17.5 points this year, Oakland is 3-4 this year, including a win against the spread week 1 against these Chargers. I think the Chargers are a better team now, and they are playing at home. Rivers has a huge day here and Russell is pulled at half time.
Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE. This is my lock of the week. The Titans haven't won a game, their owner wants Young while their coach wants the Alcoholic, and their defense is dreadful. I think MJD, Garrard, and Holt have big games here. The only chance the Titans have is if Chris Johnson has a huge day (100+ yards, 2 TDs) and whichever QB they choose steps up.
ARIZONA (-10) over Carolina. Another solid pick here. Arizona has proven that they are legit and will likely avoid the "Super Bowl loser curse" this year. Carolina has Jake Delhomme and lost by more than 10 points to the Bills last week. Steve Smith might kill Delhomme this offseason. I think the line in Vegas is 5-1.
Minnesota (+3) over GREEN BAY. Against winning teams this year, giving 3 points, Green Bay would be 1-1-1. In other words, this game is a toss up. I wouldn't bet on it, at all. If Favre shows up - the Vikings cover. If Rodgers plays like Favre in '96, the Packers win. Ultimately Favre's play and the play of the Green Bay O-Line will determine who wins this one.
Atlanta (+10) over NEW ORLEANS. The Superdome is a very tough place to play, but I think 10 points is too much here. A better line would be 7-8 points, in which case I might bet on the Saints. Reggie Bush's prediction of an undefeated regular season works against the Saints in this case and Atlanta has another one of those "well maybe they are one of the best teams in the NFC" games.
Last Week: 7-7
Year-to-Date: 53-34-1
Thursday, October 29, 2009
2009-2010 NBA Futures
To follow up to my last post. Here are some bets I would make on the NBA futures market (no particular order).
L.A. Lakers: 2.5-1 (20 units)
Boston Celtics: 4.5-1 (10 units)
Orlando Magic: 8-1 (20 units)
San Antonio Spurs: 9-1 (25 units)
Atlanta Hawks: 40-1 (3 units)
Chicago Bulls: 50-1 (2 units)
OKC Thunder: 250-1 (2 units)
If they win, you win... (please note the number of units bet in the above scenario is 82)
L.A. Lakers: (32) units - it's a hedge bet
Boston Celtics: (37) units - another hedge
Orlando Magic: 78 units (huge upside)
San Antonio Spurs: 143 units (wow!!)
Atlanta Hawks: 38 units (not bad)
Chicago Bulls: 18 units (sort of a hedge, just in case the bulls go crazy)
OKC Thunder: 418 units (not a good chance of hitting, but interesting nonetheless)
And if the Cavs win, you effectively lose 82 units.
L.A. Lakers: 2.5-1 (20 units)
Boston Celtics: 4.5-1 (10 units)
Orlando Magic: 8-1 (20 units)
San Antonio Spurs: 9-1 (25 units)
Atlanta Hawks: 40-1 (3 units)
Chicago Bulls: 50-1 (2 units)
OKC Thunder: 250-1 (2 units)
If they win, you win... (please note the number of units bet in the above scenario is 82)
L.A. Lakers: (32) units - it's a hedge bet
Boston Celtics: (37) units - another hedge
Orlando Magic: 78 units (huge upside)
San Antonio Spurs: 143 units (wow!!)
Atlanta Hawks: 38 units (not bad)
Chicago Bulls: 18 units (sort of a hedge, just in case the bulls go crazy)
OKC Thunder: 418 units (not a good chance of hitting, but interesting nonetheless)
And if the Cavs win, you effectively lose 82 units.
2009-2010 NBA Landscape: Round 1
Over the course of the season I'll take a look at the best teams in the Western and Eastern Conferences and offer up my reasons as to why they could win the title this year.
Western Conference
The Favorites
LA Lakers
Reasons to Love Them: Kobe looked like he hasn't lost a step in the first game this season. Bynum is healthy and effective. Odom doesn't look distracted by his long term contract extension and marriage to the ugliest Kardashian on the face of the planet. Easily beat the Clippers without their second best player, Gasol. Very deep bench. Best coach in basketball.
Reasons to Hate Them: Was I the only one who thought Artest looked like a corpse jogging up and down the floor the other night? He is a definite downgrade from Ariza. Bynum is bound to get hurt again at some point. Chemistry issues with playing Bynum/Gasol/Odom/Artest when all are healthy.
Current Odds to Win It All: 5-2.
My Odds to Win It All: 3-1, so 5-2 isn't too bad but doesn't provide much value. They won last year even when Bynum went down. X-Factor in their possible collapse is clearly Ron Corpse.
San Antonio Spurs
Reasons to Love Them: Deeper than the Lakers, Parker in his prime, Duncan and Manu clearly have something left in the tank, and best offseason of any NBA team. I also forgot to mention that GPop is quite an excellent coach and might be better than Phil Jackson. They also slaughtered the Hornets last night. Very impressive.
Reasons to Hate Them: Two of their three best players are old and clearly past their prime - will they be able to hold up for an entire season? Will the significant additions of new players be too much for the team to handle come playoff time? GPop's beard.
Current Odds to Win It All: 9-1. A fucking steal.
My Odds to Win It All: 3-1. I would bet on the Spurs. At least $100.
The Darkhorse
Denver Nuggets
Reasons to Love Them: Full year of having Billups on the team, Nene looks healthy, Ty Lawson looks like a draft day steal, and Carmelo's huge game last night in which he proclaimed "I'm Back". This is a team that tasted success in last year's playoffs and should use that valuable experience to mount a similar run this year. Also, Birdman.
Reasons to Hate Them: George Karl has historically fallen off in the year after reaching a conference final. Will undoubtedly lose the team a few games by guarding the inbounds guy (Lamar Odom) with his smallest point guard (this year - Ty Lawson).
Current Odds to Win It All: 12-1. Seems about right
My Odds to Win It All: 10-1. They had just about everything go right for them last year and were flushed out in the Western Conference finals. Perhaps the same this year.
Eastern Conference
The Favorites
Boston Celtics
Reasons to Love Them: The best team in basketball right now. Garnett looks healthy enough to have a good shot at lasting the entire season, Allen and Pierce still have gas left in the tank, Rondo is one of the 5 best PGs in the league, and Sheed looks motivated to help this team. Also, the best defensive team in the league right now.
Reasons to Hate Them: They aren't young and if Garnett goes down - it's over. They also resigned Big Baby - something I bet they wished they didn't do at this point. If the old men legs of their big three fall apart like they did last year - they'll be relying on Rondo to carry them in the playoffs again. And since he doesn't have a three point shot - good luck.
Current Odds to Win It All: 9-2. About right.
My Odds to Win It All: 5-1. I have some serious doubts about Garnett lasting the entire season, and Pierce and Allen being able to keep up the pace throughout the playoffs. But, with healthy legs right now - this is the best team in the game.
Orlando Magic
Reasons to Love Them: Dwight Howard is a legit threat to win the NBA MVP this year, Vince Carter looks like he gives a damn (and clearly has gas left in the tank), Nelson is healthy and a top 10 PG in the NBA, they killed the Sixers without their 3rd best player (Lewis), and clearly have a very deep bench.
Reasons to Hate Them: Will Vince be able to keep it up all year? Will these players come together under SVG (aka Ron Jeremy)? Can you win with a big man who can't shoot free throws (Howard)? How will Jameer perform in the playoffs? A lot of questions for this team, but clearly their ceiling is quite high.
Current Odds to Win It All: 8-1
My Odds to Win It All: 4-1. I think they have a good shot given their talent. Getting rid of Hedo won't hurt them at all (his defense was a major reason why the Lakers beat the Magic - hello Derek Fisher Three).
Cleveland Cavaliers
Reasons to Love Them: LeBron. They made it pretty far last year. They added Shaq.
Reasons to Hate Them: Mike Brown is a terrible coach. They've added one off players (Shaq, Mo Williams, some random foreign player(s) I can't remember) every year that don't work together. LeBron is undoubtedly leaving after this season. Having three centers (Shaq, Z, Sideshow Bob), and no PF is not a good thing.
Current Odds to Win It All: 3-1. LeBron is good.
My Odds to Win It All: 10-1. I just don't see it. The Magic and the Celtics are better team and the Celts proved it already this year by spanking the LeBrons on their home floor. Oh, and they just lost to the Raptors as well. Not good.
The Darkhorse
None. I was going to put the Chicago Bulls here, but then I found out they are at 50-1 odds. Just not good enough. The next best team in the Eastern Conference is the Atlanta Hawks, but at 40-1 odds, I just couldn't put them here either.
NBA Championship: Spurs over Magic, 6 games.
Why? It's so hard to repeat in the NBA these days. I think Artest self destructs in the Western Conference Finals (similar to what he did for the Rockets last year) and the Spurs bench outscores the Lakers bench to beat them in 6. Boston crumbles against Orlando (just like last year) and Orlando becomes the "new Detroit" by making the NBA championship but falling short. If they played the Lakers - they would beat them.
Sunday, October 25, 2009
When is there too much of a good (or bad) thing?
And how does it relate to football?The life of a rock star (without the rock band) can be quite similar to the life of an NFL GM with a quarterback who is terrible.
1) You keep telling yourself you don't have a problem.
Rock Star: You go out 4+ nights per week in college - blackout, do drugs, and have unprotected sex. This is absolutely normal (no pot calling the kettle black here). The question is, at what age does this start becoming a problem? 25? 30? Probably somewhere in there. Whenever banging a "college freshman" turns into "40 year old with a husband in jail and 2 or 3 kids", then it's both awesome and a problem.
NFL GM: You've resigned Jake Delhomme to a mega contract, drafted JaMarcus Russell, kept Kerry Collins, went with Derek Anderson, or drafted Mark Sanchez as the "future". You thought you were a genius. Little did you know if you were a GM for the Panthers, Raiders, Titans, Browns, and Jets, you'd have an average QB rating of 53.6 and a total record of 9-23 (please note I didn't include Tampa or St. Louis which would drive that record to 9-37). You thought you were smart by protecting your starting QB with absolute crap (can you name me the backup QB for one of these teams outside of Brady Quinn and Vince Young? Both failed college superstars, btw). In the end, a six shooter with a bullet looks like a better option here.
2) You fear an intervention on a weekly basis.
Rock Star: You keep telling yourself those TV cameras are really here to video tape you doing "rock star things without the rock band". You let people video tape you binge drinking, popping pills, and sleeping with moms. After a few weeks you end up in a small hotel room surrounded by family members and close friends, being duped into the whole thing by some random mom who was going to let you "put it in her butt at the local motel 6". You freak out and end up getting on a plane to Florida where you'll spend the next 6 months rehabbing (or one month if you end up beating up or fucking an employee).
NFL GM: Just call it the post game news conference every week, explaining why you failed to add another QB through the draft and went with your shitty QB. Watching highlights of Joe Flacco and Chad Henne (both of whom you absolutely could have drafted a few years back) haunts you. You take a cold shower every Sunday night before going to sleep (no, your wife won't have sex with you, as she can barely stand looking at your face). Every Monday you think about how you can save your job and come up with nothing. Next season you'll be divorced, lose your rights to the kids, and be thinking of ways to dupe another professional team to hire you.
3) You keep on keepin' on.
Rock Star: You find a family member who is in his or her 40's or 50's and compare your life to theirs. Luckily, they are an even bigger mess than you are, so you can say to yourself "at least I'm not as bad as Uncle Frank, who has had 3 wives, 4 kids who hate his guts, probably 2-3 STD's, and a liver that looks like Mickey Mantle's". Thank God for Uncle Frank.
NFL GM: You realize you're only in your second year, your owner is senile (hello Al Davis), and the owner's family is too retarded to realize you are doing a horrible job. You then realize you can always get a job as an NBA GM, seeing as how Memphis' Chris Wallace still has a job, and Isiah Thomas had a long run with the Knicks (even survived a sex scandal - bonus points).
Friday, October 23, 2009
Top 10 Things Women Can Do to Attract Men
10) Consistently pimp your Farmville/Mafia Wars/etc. games on Facebook. Not only does this tell us you have too much time on your hands, but that you are also probably easily distracted, lazy, and gained more than 20 pounds since high school. You probably also lack a large number of real friends - something guys really look for in the love of their life.
9) Drugs. All men love a girl who isn't afraid to get her nose a little dirty. A coke problem probably means she's skinny enough to show her off to your friends, while a pill problem means she's probably sedated enough to not bitch you out every 10 minutes.
8) Lower Back Tattoos. Nothing says "this is the love of my life" like seeing a girl with a tattoo on her lower back. Actually, it really says "I've either slept with over 30 men or I was at one point a stripper". I once dated a girl with about ~4 tattoos and she had slept with over 20 people and DIDN'T have a lower back tattoo. At this point 90% of guys know a tattoo on the lower back = whore, so if you've got one, you're bound to attract the opposite sex.
7) Purchase Designer Handbags and Sunglasses. Nothing says classy like a woman who still works an hourly job, with no college degree, but still rocks a Gucci bag with D&G sunglasses. Don't worry ladies, us men are stupid and realize that when you're making a solid $15K a year and spending about $2K of that on pure crap, you won't blow our money if we end up getting married.
6) Have lots of Guy Friends and Practically no Girl Friends. Don't worry baby, us men won't be able to put two and two together and realize that lots of guy friends = greater chance for you to cheat. Nor will we care about your inability to get along with other girls. That won't ever be a major problem.
5) Put out on the First Date. Again, a real winner for proving you are marriage material. This works especially well if "first date" is really "I met you at a bar, we talked about 5 minutes, discussing something I don't remember, and then we banged at my place". Preferably no condom, either. STDs are more myth than reality. +5 bonus points if you are a squirter.
4) Develop a Solid Drinking Problem. Nothing says love like an addiction to alcohol. Who really needs a liver anyway? Hell, by the time we're 50, you'll be able to get a new liver from some amazing medical breakthrough, so fuck it. The increase in your weight from drinking every day of the week will simply create "more cushion for the pushin" and won't create any problems at all.
3) Wear Lots of Makeup. I'm not talking about just a long routine of "putting on your face". What I really mean here is putting on so much makeup that whenever you don't have any on, we begin to think about beer goggles, even though we were sober the entire time. Every man loves to date a clown face.
2) Complain about your Period. Nothing says love like telling a man what it is really like to be having your period. We love knowing the fact that sex is out of the question, and all about how disgusting it would be to accidentally sleep with you and be "perioded".
1) Become a "Baby Momma". All men love taking care of another man's kid. It's like watching football on Sundays - we love it that much. If you're able to have 3 or 4 kids from 3 or 4 different fathers, even the better. That won't scare men away at all. Better yet, your kids won't be teased in school whenever their classmates find out their mom is a whore.
9) Drugs. All men love a girl who isn't afraid to get her nose a little dirty. A coke problem probably means she's skinny enough to show her off to your friends, while a pill problem means she's probably sedated enough to not bitch you out every 10 minutes.
8) Lower Back Tattoos. Nothing says "this is the love of my life" like seeing a girl with a tattoo on her lower back. Actually, it really says "I've either slept with over 30 men or I was at one point a stripper". I once dated a girl with about ~4 tattoos and she had slept with over 20 people and DIDN'T have a lower back tattoo. At this point 90% of guys know a tattoo on the lower back = whore, so if you've got one, you're bound to attract the opposite sex.
7) Purchase Designer Handbags and Sunglasses. Nothing says classy like a woman who still works an hourly job, with no college degree, but still rocks a Gucci bag with D&G sunglasses. Don't worry ladies, us men are stupid and realize that when you're making a solid $15K a year and spending about $2K of that on pure crap, you won't blow our money if we end up getting married.
6) Have lots of Guy Friends and Practically no Girl Friends. Don't worry baby, us men won't be able to put two and two together and realize that lots of guy friends = greater chance for you to cheat. Nor will we care about your inability to get along with other girls. That won't ever be a major problem.
5) Put out on the First Date. Again, a real winner for proving you are marriage material. This works especially well if "first date" is really "I met you at a bar, we talked about 5 minutes, discussing something I don't remember, and then we banged at my place". Preferably no condom, either. STDs are more myth than reality. +5 bonus points if you are a squirter.
4) Develop a Solid Drinking Problem. Nothing says love like an addiction to alcohol. Who really needs a liver anyway? Hell, by the time we're 50, you'll be able to get a new liver from some amazing medical breakthrough, so fuck it. The increase in your weight from drinking every day of the week will simply create "more cushion for the pushin" and won't create any problems at all.
3) Wear Lots of Makeup. I'm not talking about just a long routine of "putting on your face". What I really mean here is putting on so much makeup that whenever you don't have any on, we begin to think about beer goggles, even though we were sober the entire time. Every man loves to date a clown face.
2) Complain about your Period. Nothing says love like telling a man what it is really like to be having your period. We love knowing the fact that sex is out of the question, and all about how disgusting it would be to accidentally sleep with you and be "perioded".
1) Become a "Baby Momma". All men love taking care of another man's kid. It's like watching football on Sundays - we love it that much. If you're able to have 3 or 4 kids from 3 or 4 different fathers, even the better. That won't scare men away at all. Better yet, your kids won't be teased in school whenever their classmates find out their mom is a whore.
2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Season Preview
Alright, going to go through a lot of different categories here:
General Strategy
PGs and SF early.
The quality of PGs drops off dramatically after the 5th round. You don't want to be taking Mo Williams in Round 6 or Andre Miller in Round 7, do you? Speaking of PGs, I think the rankings this year are totally out of whack on ESPN. I wouldn't take Billups (19), Kidd (28) over Rondo (29), Calderon (30), or Harris (31). And I sure wouldn't risk Arenas (32) over Rose (36). I also like Westbrook at 49. I'd take him at 40 if he were there, actually.
SFs are a similar story. Do you really want to overspend on Hedo (62), Artest (65), or Marion (78)? Does it scare you that those three are the 9th, 10th, and 12th SFs taken on an average draft position basis? It sure scares me as I don't want any of those on my team. It also doesn't help the position that there really aren't any good late sleepers here, although Ariza (90) and Al Thornton (119) might provide good value.
C, PF, and SG late. Examples of these types of players you can get in rounds 8 and later:
C: Horford (8th), Bogut (10th), Sheed (10th), Oden (11th), Noah (11th), Kaman (11th), Dalembert (12th), Chandler (12th), and Hibbert (13th). (Also note that you can get both Bynum and Okafor in round 7, which isn't bad value either)
PF: Bargnani (8th), Diaw (8th), Blake Griffin (8th), Scola (9th), Anthony Randolph (9th), Millsap (9th), Odom (10th), Love (11th), and Beasley (11th)
SG: JRichardson (8th), Jason Terry (8th), John Salmons (8th), Manu (9th), JR Smith (9th), Josh Howard (9th), Rip Hamilon (9th), Barbosa (12th), Hinrich (12th), Ronnie Brewer (12th), Rudy Fernandez (13th) (Also note that Eric Gordon is available in round 7, which is insane value)
Lots of solid players out there in the later rounds for these positions. And guess what? In fantasy basketball you win your league based on how your top players produce and who nails the later rounds with solid performers / sleepers. Not a lot of solid performers/sleepers out there for the PG and SF position this year, so make sure to get them early.
Auction League Strategy
Pay top dollar for the 6 big players (Lebron, Paul, Durant, Kobe, Wade, and Granger), get cheap players later.
I recently spent about 90% of my salary on five players in an auction draft and the quality of players you will be able to get with the last 10% of your salary will amaze you. I ended up getting "scrubs" such as Ray Allen, Tony Parker, Villanueva, Chalmers, Bogut, Kirilenko, and Brad Miller.
Sleepers (Note: Only looking at 6th round and later)
Andrew Bynum (7th Round): Look, if he can stay healthy all year he's going to average 20/10 with a couple of blocks. That is approx. what Tim Duncan did last year and he's a 2nd round pick this year (with most people expecting a slight drop off). Whenever Bynum is healthy he's a second round talent. If he blows out his knee again in January this year, hopefully he's helped your team to a solid record over the course of 8-12 weeks and you can afford losing your 7th round pick. Lots of upside here and little downside here for a 7th round pick (when I believe he was a 3rd/4th round pick last year).
Eric Gordon (7th Round): His averages last year aren't as good as they should be because he spent the first month of the season on the bench. I don't think he'll score as much as he did last year when he started (hello resurgent Baron Davis and Blake Griffin), but he'll produce more assists and rebounds. A great value here - I think he's a 4th round / 5th round talent at worst.
Al Horford / Blake Griffin / Luis Scola (8th/9th Rounds): I like all of these guys about the same. They should produce some points (lesser so in Horford's case), rebounds (all strong), and blocks (lesser so for Griffin). They should also have excellent percentages (especially Scola). They won't win you the league, but they can be counted on to provide solid numbers throughout the year (with a little bit of an injury concern for Horford and Griffin).
Anthony Randolph (9th Round): Shouldn't be a surprise here. This guy is a lock for 15 points, 10 rebounds, and a couple of blocks per game if he gets the minutes he deserves.
Joakim Noah (11th Round): Has absolutely been tearing it up in the preseason this year after impressing in the playoffs last year. I think he's good for about 10-12 points and 10-15 rebounds per game. Add in a couple of blocks and you're set for a late round center pick. Percentages won't be great, however.
Nate Robinson (11th Round): 11th round pick for 6th round talent? I'll buy that. I don't think his numbers are any worse than last year. In turnover leagues he's even more valuable because he just doesn't turn the ball over. I would draft him more as a SG than a PG seeing as how he has a high number of Threes and a low number of assists.
Tyreke Evans (12th Round): My pick for Rookie of the Year, barely edging out Blake Griffin. This guy can do it all (which appearently includes killing people, on and off the court). I think his percentages are a little low, but he can score, grab boards, get assists, and generate steals and blocks. Great value here for someone that could be a 3rd round pick next year.
Busts (Note: Only looking at 5th round and earlier)
Bosh / Amare / Al Jefferson (Late 1st / Early 2nd): I seriously hope I don't draft at #10 through #12 this year in our "pay" league. I don't like any of these guys. I guess I'd take Bosh first since he represents the least risk, while Jefferson has the most upside. I'm not taking Amare unless he falls to the third round. Jefferson's ability to come back from the achilles injury scares me a lot and that is why he is here. Bosh doesn't get enough blocks (1.0 per game) to justify his high draft status.
Kevin Garnett (2nd Round): I'm not taking him this year at all. He has staples in his knee, man. I don't see him returning to form. Getting 15 points and 7 rebounds per game out of him would be generous. In fact, I'd rather have Luis Scola on my team this year. He'll be ranked higher at season's end - mark my words.
Gilbert Arenas (4th Round): I'm not betting my fourth round pick on someone who is either going to make or break my season on a crappy team in DC. Does not make any sense to me whatsoever to take him in front of D Rose.
David Lee (4th Round): I won't be spending a fourth round pick on someone who gets average points (~16 per game) and a bunch of rebounds. Rebounds are plentiful, especially among PFs who are available in later rounds. If Kevin Love weren't hurt to start the season, I'd take him over Lee. And he was going in round 10 BEFORE his injury. Way too high for Lee here, especially given the fact that it took the Knicks so long to resign him during the offseason.
Ben Gordon (5th Round): Too much depth at SG this year to justify taking him this early. Also, when you think about it - he's a SG and so is Rip Hamilton. This could be bad news for Gordon's fantasy season. We all know how well the Iverson/Rip thing worked out last year. Not good.
General Strategy
PGs and SF early.
The quality of PGs drops off dramatically after the 5th round. You don't want to be taking Mo Williams in Round 6 or Andre Miller in Round 7, do you? Speaking of PGs, I think the rankings this year are totally out of whack on ESPN. I wouldn't take Billups (19), Kidd (28) over Rondo (29), Calderon (30), or Harris (31). And I sure wouldn't risk Arenas (32) over Rose (36). I also like Westbrook at 49. I'd take him at 40 if he were there, actually.
SFs are a similar story. Do you really want to overspend on Hedo (62), Artest (65), or Marion (78)? Does it scare you that those three are the 9th, 10th, and 12th SFs taken on an average draft position basis? It sure scares me as I don't want any of those on my team. It also doesn't help the position that there really aren't any good late sleepers here, although Ariza (90) and Al Thornton (119) might provide good value.
C, PF, and SG late. Examples of these types of players you can get in rounds 8 and later:
C: Horford (8th), Bogut (10th), Sheed (10th), Oden (11th), Noah (11th), Kaman (11th), Dalembert (12th), Chandler (12th), and Hibbert (13th). (Also note that you can get both Bynum and Okafor in round 7, which isn't bad value either)
PF: Bargnani (8th), Diaw (8th), Blake Griffin (8th), Scola (9th), Anthony Randolph (9th), Millsap (9th), Odom (10th), Love (11th), and Beasley (11th)
SG: JRichardson (8th), Jason Terry (8th), John Salmons (8th), Manu (9th), JR Smith (9th), Josh Howard (9th), Rip Hamilon (9th), Barbosa (12th), Hinrich (12th), Ronnie Brewer (12th), Rudy Fernandez (13th) (Also note that Eric Gordon is available in round 7, which is insane value)
Lots of solid players out there in the later rounds for these positions. And guess what? In fantasy basketball you win your league based on how your top players produce and who nails the later rounds with solid performers / sleepers. Not a lot of solid performers/sleepers out there for the PG and SF position this year, so make sure to get them early.
Auction League Strategy
Pay top dollar for the 6 big players (Lebron, Paul, Durant, Kobe, Wade, and Granger), get cheap players later.
I recently spent about 90% of my salary on five players in an auction draft and the quality of players you will be able to get with the last 10% of your salary will amaze you. I ended up getting "scrubs" such as Ray Allen, Tony Parker, Villanueva, Chalmers, Bogut, Kirilenko, and Brad Miller.
Sleepers (Note: Only looking at 6th round and later)
Andrew Bynum (7th Round): Look, if he can stay healthy all year he's going to average 20/10 with a couple of blocks. That is approx. what Tim Duncan did last year and he's a 2nd round pick this year (with most people expecting a slight drop off). Whenever Bynum is healthy he's a second round talent. If he blows out his knee again in January this year, hopefully he's helped your team to a solid record over the course of 8-12 weeks and you can afford losing your 7th round pick. Lots of upside here and little downside here for a 7th round pick (when I believe he was a 3rd/4th round pick last year).
Eric Gordon (7th Round): His averages last year aren't as good as they should be because he spent the first month of the season on the bench. I don't think he'll score as much as he did last year when he started (hello resurgent Baron Davis and Blake Griffin), but he'll produce more assists and rebounds. A great value here - I think he's a 4th round / 5th round talent at worst.
Al Horford / Blake Griffin / Luis Scola (8th/9th Rounds): I like all of these guys about the same. They should produce some points (lesser so in Horford's case), rebounds (all strong), and blocks (lesser so for Griffin). They should also have excellent percentages (especially Scola). They won't win you the league, but they can be counted on to provide solid numbers throughout the year (with a little bit of an injury concern for Horford and Griffin).
Anthony Randolph (9th Round): Shouldn't be a surprise here. This guy is a lock for 15 points, 10 rebounds, and a couple of blocks per game if he gets the minutes he deserves.
Joakim Noah (11th Round): Has absolutely been tearing it up in the preseason this year after impressing in the playoffs last year. I think he's good for about 10-12 points and 10-15 rebounds per game. Add in a couple of blocks and you're set for a late round center pick. Percentages won't be great, however.
Nate Robinson (11th Round): 11th round pick for 6th round talent? I'll buy that. I don't think his numbers are any worse than last year. In turnover leagues he's even more valuable because he just doesn't turn the ball over. I would draft him more as a SG than a PG seeing as how he has a high number of Threes and a low number of assists.
Tyreke Evans (12th Round): My pick for Rookie of the Year, barely edging out Blake Griffin. This guy can do it all (which appearently includes killing people, on and off the court). I think his percentages are a little low, but he can score, grab boards, get assists, and generate steals and blocks. Great value here for someone that could be a 3rd round pick next year.
Busts (Note: Only looking at 5th round and earlier)
Bosh / Amare / Al Jefferson (Late 1st / Early 2nd): I seriously hope I don't draft at #10 through #12 this year in our "pay" league. I don't like any of these guys. I guess I'd take Bosh first since he represents the least risk, while Jefferson has the most upside. I'm not taking Amare unless he falls to the third round. Jefferson's ability to come back from the achilles injury scares me a lot and that is why he is here. Bosh doesn't get enough blocks (1.0 per game) to justify his high draft status.
Kevin Garnett (2nd Round): I'm not taking him this year at all. He has staples in his knee, man. I don't see him returning to form. Getting 15 points and 7 rebounds per game out of him would be generous. In fact, I'd rather have Luis Scola on my team this year. He'll be ranked higher at season's end - mark my words.
Gilbert Arenas (4th Round): I'm not betting my fourth round pick on someone who is either going to make or break my season on a crappy team in DC. Does not make any sense to me whatsoever to take him in front of D Rose.
David Lee (4th Round): I won't be spending a fourth round pick on someone who gets average points (~16 per game) and a bunch of rebounds. Rebounds are plentiful, especially among PFs who are available in later rounds. If Kevin Love weren't hurt to start the season, I'd take him over Lee. And he was going in round 10 BEFORE his injury. Way too high for Lee here, especially given the fact that it took the Knicks so long to resign him during the offseason.
Ben Gordon (5th Round): Too much depth at SG this year to justify taking him this early. Also, when you think about it - he's a SG and so is Rip Hamilton. This could be bad news for Gordon's fantasy season. We all know how well the Iverson/Rip thing worked out last year. Not good.
NFL Picks - Week 7
Minnesota (-5) over PITTSBURGH. What am I missing here? Yeah, Minnesota couldn't cover last week at home after falling apart in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh does this every week. Would not surprise me at all if Minny is down 10, scores a TD with 5 minutes to go and that is the final score of the game. Do the math. Pittsburgh by 3.
New England (-14.5) over Tampa Bay. This game is being played in London, so it's not really a home game for Tampa Bay. That also explains why the spread is so large. Look, I think TB has a good chance of covering this since the spread is so large and there are a lot of variables when playing across the pond. The main reason I'm going with the Pats here is they lit the Titans on fire last week, in the freaking snow. Either Tom Brady is back, or that was one of the weirdest one-off blips in NFL history. I think he's back.
San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY. I must have gone back and forth on this game 5 times. Stay away. The Chargers are 2-3 and the Chiefs are fresh off covering their last two games. This looks like a KC cover until you remember what Philip Rivers did to them last year in KC. I'll take Rivers here with a big fourth quarter and a "dirty cover".
San Francisco (+3) over HOUSTON. San Francisco is legit and that last game where they pooped the bed was just a random blip. Houston is too inconsistent to bet on right now unless you like having chest pains.
Green Bay (-9) over CLEVELAND. Not buying into Cleveland one bit even though they covered their last two games. I don't think they have the defensive pressure to stop Aaron "Suddenly I'm a legit Top 5 NFL QB" Rodgers.
Indianapolis (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS. Peyton Manning just scored another touchdown.... And they get Bob Sanders back for this game. Bad news for the Rams offense.
New York Jets (-6.5) over OAKLAND. Not buying the Oakland win and huge cover last week. In the end they still barely scored any points, 7 of which were on a joke Zach Miller blown play long TD. Andy Reid was probably more focused on where his Sunday morning cheeseburger was coming from than scheming against the Oakland D.
CAROLINA (-7) over Buffalo. Might as well bet big on Buffalo as any time I bet on Carolina this year they fail me. I'm buying them because their RB duo is better than Buffalo's and looked amazing last week. If Delhomme can only throw 10 times and both Stewart and Williams have over 100 yards rushing again, Carolina covers easily.
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS. Am I missing something here? I feel like this might be the second coming of the Atlanta at NE game, where Atlanta never really had a chance. But Dallas is awful this year, right? I'll bet on it. This is my lock of the week. In fact, forget the points, and bet big on Atlanta straight up. They could win by 14+.
Chicago (+1) over CINCINNATI. Cutler will bounce back after last week's affair even if Forte continues his epic Sophomore slump. Also, I just don't trust Cinci this year.
New Orleans (-6.5) over MIAMI. Took a lot of time thinking about this one. On one hand, you have Miami, who looks much better at home and found a way to win against the Jets a couple of weeks ago. On the other hand, you have the Saints, who have won every game this year by at least 14 points. I'll take the Saints, barely.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona. Arizona struggles when having to travel East and the Giants are looking to vindicate being embarrassed by New Orleans last week. I think this is a close one, so I wouldn't recommend betting on it with a high level of confidence.
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON. Not buying into Washington for the rest of the year after their loss to KC last week. Philly did lose to Oakland, but I'll call that a minor blip on the radar. Philly big in this one.
New England (-14.5) over Tampa Bay. This game is being played in London, so it's not really a home game for Tampa Bay. That also explains why the spread is so large. Look, I think TB has a good chance of covering this since the spread is so large and there are a lot of variables when playing across the pond. The main reason I'm going with the Pats here is they lit the Titans on fire last week, in the freaking snow. Either Tom Brady is back, or that was one of the weirdest one-off blips in NFL history. I think he's back.
San Diego (-5) over KANSAS CITY. I must have gone back and forth on this game 5 times. Stay away. The Chargers are 2-3 and the Chiefs are fresh off covering their last two games. This looks like a KC cover until you remember what Philip Rivers did to them last year in KC. I'll take Rivers here with a big fourth quarter and a "dirty cover".
San Francisco (+3) over HOUSTON. San Francisco is legit and that last game where they pooped the bed was just a random blip. Houston is too inconsistent to bet on right now unless you like having chest pains.
Green Bay (-9) over CLEVELAND. Not buying into Cleveland one bit even though they covered their last two games. I don't think they have the defensive pressure to stop Aaron "Suddenly I'm a legit Top 5 NFL QB" Rodgers.
Indianapolis (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS. Peyton Manning just scored another touchdown.... And they get Bob Sanders back for this game. Bad news for the Rams offense.
New York Jets (-6.5) over OAKLAND. Not buying the Oakland win and huge cover last week. In the end they still barely scored any points, 7 of which were on a joke Zach Miller blown play long TD. Andy Reid was probably more focused on where his Sunday morning cheeseburger was coming from than scheming against the Oakland D.
CAROLINA (-7) over Buffalo. Might as well bet big on Buffalo as any time I bet on Carolina this year they fail me. I'm buying them because their RB duo is better than Buffalo's and looked amazing last week. If Delhomme can only throw 10 times and both Stewart and Williams have over 100 yards rushing again, Carolina covers easily.
Atlanta (+4) over DALLAS. Am I missing something here? I feel like this might be the second coming of the Atlanta at NE game, where Atlanta never really had a chance. But Dallas is awful this year, right? I'll bet on it. This is my lock of the week. In fact, forget the points, and bet big on Atlanta straight up. They could win by 14+.
Chicago (+1) over CINCINNATI. Cutler will bounce back after last week's affair even if Forte continues his epic Sophomore slump. Also, I just don't trust Cinci this year.
New Orleans (-6.5) over MIAMI. Took a lot of time thinking about this one. On one hand, you have Miami, who looks much better at home and found a way to win against the Jets a couple of weeks ago. On the other hand, you have the Saints, who have won every game this year by at least 14 points. I'll take the Saints, barely.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Arizona. Arizona struggles when having to travel East and the Giants are looking to vindicate being embarrassed by New Orleans last week. I think this is a close one, so I wouldn't recommend betting on it with a high level of confidence.
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON. Not buying into Washington for the rest of the year after their loss to KC last week. Philly did lose to Oakland, but I'll call that a minor blip on the radar. Philly big in this one.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Weekend in Review
Not good. I'm not even going to post the numbers right now because they are just awful.
I feel like the guy who tried to get away with this (so close yet so far away):
I feel like the guy who tried to get away with this (so close yet so far away):
Top 10 Worst Choices for a College
Please note that I have excluded all of those small schools on the east coast. I am neither extremely wealthy, nor was I a total loser in high school, but frankly - I don't know the names of a lot of them and don't care to do the research.
10) Emerson College - Recently voted the #1 college in terms of "worst crime rating", and we're not talking "hey man, the kid down the hall stole my bong" type of crimes. Oh, and did you know it was smack dab in the middle of a shitty area of Boston? I know what you're saying, "Aren't all areas of Boston shitty?", and yes they are, but this one is a particular squat patty.
9) Brown - Congratulations, you've just been admitted to the shittiest school in the Ivy League. Might as well call this college "Poop U".
8) Notre Dame - Unless you are Catholic and totally into either: A) Not having sex or B) Having sex with an ugly girl, you're probably not going to like Notre Dame. Yes, the diploma is nice to have, but is the risk of being devoured by Charlie Weis really worth it? I once saw him eat a man's dick. It was in international waters.
7) Texas - If you're from Texas, that's great - go there. Better than Texas Tech or that school in the football movie with Scott Balaka and Sin Bad. But if you're from out of state - I caution you to think of the following question: "Have I ever met anyone from Texas and did I like them?". Barring the obvious "Yes, because she was a hot blond that gave me the best rim job of my life", the answer is most likely "No". People from Texas think they are entitled to something, so it's best to just let them be.
6) Any school that pays white people to come there: Grambling, Southern, etc. - I'm not racist, don't get me wrong - I just don't have 95% interracial friends. Going here could lead to an awkward moment freshman year when you drop the soap next to your buddy, Bubba. That won't feel good.
5) Western New Mexico - Welcome to Western New Mexico, where there is cacti, snakes, and rapists. The reason I put them on here? 5.9% graduation rate. How is that possible?
4) West Virginia - I'm going out on a limb here and saying they don't have a dental school. And if they did - good luck trying to find a job as a dentist in West Virginia. Big pluses do exist, however. All the Oxycontin you can stomach.
3) Boise State - Guess what? Not a good school. Also, you're going to need to LOVE E or acid in order to enjoy staring at that smurf turf in the fall. I don't know this for an actual fact, but I can't imagine the girls are anything that would make your stoinker go "boing".
2) BYU - Might as well call it "Cult U". I don't know everything about Mormons, nor do I really care to learn, but I think the typical "Drink, fuck, experiment with drugs" thing that college usually provides is frowned upon there. On the positive side, if you were stuck with BYU, you could fake to be a Mormon, and then convince a lot of gullible chicks to fuck/drink/do drugs with you - you'd be a modern day Mormon raider.
1) Ohio State - Congratulations, your football team will ultimately disappoint you at some point, you spend 8 months out of the year in Ohio (one of the shittiest states in the USA), and you probably contracted chlamydia as a freshman. As an added bonus you can take your diploma (assuming you graduate) and use it to wipe your ass, seeing as how no respectable firm will ever hire you.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Fantasy Football Breakdown - Week 6
Trying to take some risks this week instead of just going with the people from the "obvious names" department.
Rising Stars
QB: Aaron Rodgers. Call this the "Law of Facing the Detroit Lions". Although Rodgers is the #4 fantasy QB thus far (including a bye week!), I think he could be doing better. How? His offensive line has been terrible. How do you fix that? Get guys healthy through the bye week and then play the Lions. Big week for Rodgers.
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew. The Rams are not good in any aspect and MJD has a big game here. I don't think I need to say much else.
WR: Roddy White. Finally broke out last week and continues it this week. Playing at home definitely helps.
TE: Antonio Gates. Averaging 15 points per game this year, I think he gets more than that on Monday night. Guy always shows up in big games and Rivers will find him.
D: Eagles D. OK, so this is from the obvious name department. So what? They are playing the Raiders. Home run play here.
Sleepers
QB: David Garrard. He played great in week 4 but sucked it up in week 5. Supposedly he had the flu last week and that was the reason for his demise. Playing in SEA couldn't have helped, but I'll buy the flu thing. What else am I buying? Him playing STL at home this week. Big week for him.
RB: Steven Jackson. Going out on a limb here and predicting at least 80 yards and a TD for Jackson this week.
WR: Dwayne Bowe. He's on my fantasy teams and he looked good last week. Here's hoping he produces big this week. 100 yards and a TD.
TE: Jeremy Shockey. I'll bet he finds the end zone against his former team. It is the first time he's playing the Giants after leaving the team.
D: Redskins D. Perhaps another "obvious name" but there isn't much else out there outside of the top 10.
Duds
QB: Eli Manning. The Saints bring pressure and they are playing the G-Men at home. Manning still has a sore heal, and regardless of their performance thus far, his WRs aren't the most talented in the NFL. I think he struggles here and this game is more of a defensive matchup than people think.
RB: Ray Rice / Willis McGahee. One of the most consistent things in the NFL over the past three years? The Vikings run D. These two are averaging a combined 29 fantasy points per game and I don't think they get there this week. If I were owning these guys, I'd take 10 points and hope for a TD to boost me to 16.
WR: Chad Ochocinco. I don't think he shows up this week. He's averaging about 12 points per game - I'll guess he winds up with around 5.
TE: Chris Cooley. With Samuels out, he will continue to help block and it will hurt his pass reception totals. Even facing the Chiefs this week - I think he continues to suck it up and be a team player.
D: Broncos D. I like the Chargers in this matchup.
Rising Stars
QB: Aaron Rodgers. Call this the "Law of Facing the Detroit Lions". Although Rodgers is the #4 fantasy QB thus far (including a bye week!), I think he could be doing better. How? His offensive line has been terrible. How do you fix that? Get guys healthy through the bye week and then play the Lions. Big week for Rodgers.
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew. The Rams are not good in any aspect and MJD has a big game here. I don't think I need to say much else.
WR: Roddy White. Finally broke out last week and continues it this week. Playing at home definitely helps.
TE: Antonio Gates. Averaging 15 points per game this year, I think he gets more than that on Monday night. Guy always shows up in big games and Rivers will find him.
D: Eagles D. OK, so this is from the obvious name department. So what? They are playing the Raiders. Home run play here.
Sleepers
QB: David Garrard. He played great in week 4 but sucked it up in week 5. Supposedly he had the flu last week and that was the reason for his demise. Playing in SEA couldn't have helped, but I'll buy the flu thing. What else am I buying? Him playing STL at home this week. Big week for him.
RB: Steven Jackson. Going out on a limb here and predicting at least 80 yards and a TD for Jackson this week.
WR: Dwayne Bowe. He's on my fantasy teams and he looked good last week. Here's hoping he produces big this week. 100 yards and a TD.
TE: Jeremy Shockey. I'll bet he finds the end zone against his former team. It is the first time he's playing the Giants after leaving the team.
D: Redskins D. Perhaps another "obvious name" but there isn't much else out there outside of the top 10.
Duds
QB: Eli Manning. The Saints bring pressure and they are playing the G-Men at home. Manning still has a sore heal, and regardless of their performance thus far, his WRs aren't the most talented in the NFL. I think he struggles here and this game is more of a defensive matchup than people think.
RB: Ray Rice / Willis McGahee. One of the most consistent things in the NFL over the past three years? The Vikings run D. These two are averaging a combined 29 fantasy points per game and I don't think they get there this week. If I were owning these guys, I'd take 10 points and hope for a TD to boost me to 16.
WR: Chad Ochocinco. I don't think he shows up this week. He's averaging about 12 points per game - I'll guess he winds up with around 5.
TE: Chris Cooley. With Samuels out, he will continue to help block and it will hurt his pass reception totals. Even facing the Chiefs this week - I think he continues to suck it up and be a team player.
D: Broncos D. I like the Chargers in this matchup.
NFL Picks - Week 6
WASHINGTON (-6) over Kansas City. I'm buying this "don't fire Jim Zorn" movement by the players. If Jason Campbell can successfully remove his head from his ass, then I think the Redskins easily cover this game. I don't like KC on the road, and I don't like their running game either. Redskins by 7.
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over New York Giants. Tough one to call and it should be a great game but I think the Saints pull this one out. 1) The Superdome is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. 2) This is the first game the Saints have all three of their RBs fully healthy. 3) Drew Brees is looking to kick it back into gear after his poor performance against the Jets. 4) The Saints are coming off a bye. New Orleans by 10.
TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over Carolina. Steve Smith is banged up and Jake Delhomme sucks - that is why I am taking Tampa here. If I were you, I wouldn't bet on this game though. Too close to call. Carolina by 3.
CINCINNATI (-5) over Houston. Houston has been consistently beat by 7 or more points this year against teams with winning records. That is enough for me to take Cinci in this matchup. Although Cinci looked rough last week against Cleveland, I think they come out of this one with a decent win. Cinci by 10.
MINNESOTA (-3) over Baltimore. I'm buying into Baltimore's recent slide. I think they were overrated at the beginning of the season, while the Vikings seem to have all of the pieces to make a deep playoff run. Peterson, Favre, Harvin, Berrian, and Shiancoe is a pretty freaking solid offensive base and their defense can stop both the run and the pass. Minny by 10.
Cleveland (+14) over PITTSBURGH. I don't see why the Steelers constantly give up points in the fourth quarter but are given two touchdown spreads. Obviously people are overbetting them, which confuses me because they don't cover! The Lions came back to cover last week and I think Cleveland does the same this week. The only hope the Steelers have is something like a 28-7 win in this game, which is possible, but I'll bet against it. Pittsburgh by 10.
JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) over St. Louis. I don't like this Rams team at all - no QB and no WR. All the opposing defense has to do is key on SJax and the STL offense is totally fucked. Garrard bounces back after a rough week last week and finds the former Ram, Torry Holt, for a score. Jacksonville by 17. If I were in a survival pool, I'd take Jax here too.
GREEN BAY (-13.5) over Detroit. No Calvin Johnson = problem for the Lions. Stafford or Culpepper doesn't matter - the Lions won't be able to run the ball as GB should focus on stopping that part of their offense. Rodgers still gets sacked a few times in this game, but not to the extent of the Minny game. Green bay by 17.
Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND. I don't think I need to explain this one. Philly is another great choice for a survival pool. The Eagles offense blows up - Philly by 35.
SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona. Seattle, like New Orleans, is a very tough place to play. The 'Hawks looked great last week with Hasselbeck back at the helm and I think they continue to look good against the Cardinals. Seattle by 10.
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Tennessee. Look, Tennessee is plain awful this year. People were talking about the Dolphins being the one year wonder this year, but it's the Titans, hands down. Kerry Collins is going to need a lot of booze to cover this spread, let alone win the game. Vince Young has no chance. New England by 17.
NEW YORK JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo. The Bills are in turmoil and the Jets are coming off a tough loss on Monday night. What does that mean? The Jets come out fired up and ready to play. Their defense shuts down the Bills dreadful offense and wins this game. NYJ by 14.
ATLANTA (-3.5) over Chicago. Probably the second best game of the week, and another that I wouldn't necessarily bet on. Chicago has looked great since losing their first game, but that's been aided by playing a lot of games at home. Atlanta looked like a Super Bowl-caliber team last week and I think that continues this week. Atlanta by 7.
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Denver. Denver's perfect streak ends in San Diego. The Broncos haven't faced much of a test on the road (other than being the benefit of extremely good fortune to beat the Bengals in week 1), and San Diego is a tough team. I could see SD winning by only three, but I'm taking them anyway. San Diego by 4.
Last Week: 7-7
Year-to-Date: 39-20-1
NEW ORLEANS (-3) over New York Giants. Tough one to call and it should be a great game but I think the Saints pull this one out. 1) The Superdome is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. 2) This is the first game the Saints have all three of their RBs fully healthy. 3) Drew Brees is looking to kick it back into gear after his poor performance against the Jets. 4) The Saints are coming off a bye. New Orleans by 10.
TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over Carolina. Steve Smith is banged up and Jake Delhomme sucks - that is why I am taking Tampa here. If I were you, I wouldn't bet on this game though. Too close to call. Carolina by 3.
CINCINNATI (-5) over Houston. Houston has been consistently beat by 7 or more points this year against teams with winning records. That is enough for me to take Cinci in this matchup. Although Cinci looked rough last week against Cleveland, I think they come out of this one with a decent win. Cinci by 10.
MINNESOTA (-3) over Baltimore. I'm buying into Baltimore's recent slide. I think they were overrated at the beginning of the season, while the Vikings seem to have all of the pieces to make a deep playoff run. Peterson, Favre, Harvin, Berrian, and Shiancoe is a pretty freaking solid offensive base and their defense can stop both the run and the pass. Minny by 10.
Cleveland (+14) over PITTSBURGH. I don't see why the Steelers constantly give up points in the fourth quarter but are given two touchdown spreads. Obviously people are overbetting them, which confuses me because they don't cover! The Lions came back to cover last week and I think Cleveland does the same this week. The only hope the Steelers have is something like a 28-7 win in this game, which is possible, but I'll bet against it. Pittsburgh by 10.
JACKSONVILLE (-9.5) over St. Louis. I don't like this Rams team at all - no QB and no WR. All the opposing defense has to do is key on SJax and the STL offense is totally fucked. Garrard bounces back after a rough week last week and finds the former Ram, Torry Holt, for a score. Jacksonville by 17. If I were in a survival pool, I'd take Jax here too.
GREEN BAY (-13.5) over Detroit. No Calvin Johnson = problem for the Lions. Stafford or Culpepper doesn't matter - the Lions won't be able to run the ball as GB should focus on stopping that part of their offense. Rodgers still gets sacked a few times in this game, but not to the extent of the Minny game. Green bay by 17.
Philadelphia (-14) over OAKLAND. I don't think I need to explain this one. Philly is another great choice for a survival pool. The Eagles offense blows up - Philly by 35.
SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona. Seattle, like New Orleans, is a very tough place to play. The 'Hawks looked great last week with Hasselbeck back at the helm and I think they continue to look good against the Cardinals. Seattle by 10.
NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Tennessee. Look, Tennessee is plain awful this year. People were talking about the Dolphins being the one year wonder this year, but it's the Titans, hands down. Kerry Collins is going to need a lot of booze to cover this spread, let alone win the game. Vince Young has no chance. New England by 17.
NEW YORK JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo. The Bills are in turmoil and the Jets are coming off a tough loss on Monday night. What does that mean? The Jets come out fired up and ready to play. Their defense shuts down the Bills dreadful offense and wins this game. NYJ by 14.
ATLANTA (-3.5) over Chicago. Probably the second best game of the week, and another that I wouldn't necessarily bet on. Chicago has looked great since losing their first game, but that's been aided by playing a lot of games at home. Atlanta looked like a Super Bowl-caliber team last week and I think that continues this week. Atlanta by 7.
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) over Denver. Denver's perfect streak ends in San Diego. The Broncos haven't faced much of a test on the road (other than being the benefit of extremely good fortune to beat the Bengals in week 1), and San Diego is a tough team. I could see SD winning by only three, but I'm taking them anyway. San Diego by 4.
Last Week: 7-7
Year-to-Date: 39-20-1
College Football Picks - Week 7
USC (-10) over NOTRE DAME. I just have a feeling about this one. I saw the Weis press conference where he discussed how he had never felt a vibe like this before for a game in South Bend. But in reality, what he has is a dinged up Clausen, a MIA Michael Floyd, and a defense that was shredded by Tate Forcier (so why can't Matt Barkley?). No "Bush Push" needed to win this game. USC by 21.
FLORIDA (-24) over Arkansas. I like this one for several reasons. 1) Everyone is all over Arkansas' jock after they spanked Auburn by 21 points. 2) Florida "only" beat LSU by 10 points last week. 3) When you realize this game is at the Swamp, and Florida was on the road last week and Arkansas was at home, you have to temper last week's results. The Razorbacks ride or die with the arm of Ryan "I fucked 100 girls at Michigan" Mallett, and I think the Florida defense shuts him down. If Florida can score 35 points, this game is an easy cover. Florida by 28.
Virginia Tech (-3) over GEORGIA TECH. A good friend said to me once, "if you have a top 25 team and your defense can't figure out how to stop Ga Tech's scheme, that's fucking pitiful". I agree with him, and guess what? Va Tech always has a great defense. Yes, they only beat Duke by 8 points on the road, but look at their other games since losing to Alabama on opening day. They killed Miami, beat Nebraska, and slaughtered Boston College last week. It seems like it is the same old story with Va Tech every year - lose the first big game of the season (Alabama), kill a bunch of other teams to get back into the top 10, lose one more game, and eventually make a BCS bowl. I see the same thing happening this year. Va Tech by 10.
Miami (-14) over UCF. Is it Christmas already? I don't understand why this spread is not in the twenties. Miami hasn't played as well on the road this year, but it's not like UCF is very far from Coral Gables. Miami by 28.
Kansas (-10) over COLORADO. Not buying Colorado's performance against Texas last week - they are still losers. Kansas has a good squad with a great college QB. That should be enough to cover the spread here. Only way Colorado covers is in a shootout. Kansas by 21.
Last week: 3-2
Year-to-date: 10-12
FLORIDA (-24) over Arkansas. I like this one for several reasons. 1) Everyone is all over Arkansas' jock after they spanked Auburn by 21 points. 2) Florida "only" beat LSU by 10 points last week. 3) When you realize this game is at the Swamp, and Florida was on the road last week and Arkansas was at home, you have to temper last week's results. The Razorbacks ride or die with the arm of Ryan "I fucked 100 girls at Michigan" Mallett, and I think the Florida defense shuts him down. If Florida can score 35 points, this game is an easy cover. Florida by 28.
Virginia Tech (-3) over GEORGIA TECH. A good friend said to me once, "if you have a top 25 team and your defense can't figure out how to stop Ga Tech's scheme, that's fucking pitiful". I agree with him, and guess what? Va Tech always has a great defense. Yes, they only beat Duke by 8 points on the road, but look at their other games since losing to Alabama on opening day. They killed Miami, beat Nebraska, and slaughtered Boston College last week. It seems like it is the same old story with Va Tech every year - lose the first big game of the season (Alabama), kill a bunch of other teams to get back into the top 10, lose one more game, and eventually make a BCS bowl. I see the same thing happening this year. Va Tech by 10.
Miami (-14) over UCF. Is it Christmas already? I don't understand why this spread is not in the twenties. Miami hasn't played as well on the road this year, but it's not like UCF is very far from Coral Gables. Miami by 28.
Kansas (-10) over COLORADO. Not buying Colorado's performance against Texas last week - they are still losers. Kansas has a good squad with a great college QB. That should be enough to cover the spread here. Only way Colorado covers is in a shootout. Kansas by 21.
Last week: 3-2
Year-to-date: 10-12
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Weekend in Review
NFL Picks: 7-7. Lots of good spreads last week is why I was only .500. 5 of my 7 losses were within 3 points of covering. That hurts.
Year-to-Date: 39-20-1
College Football Picks: 3-2. Damn I wish Michigan would have won that game, but at least I was right about 8 points being a joke. Their next "bettable" game (@ home against PSU) has them at +5.5 right now - again a good bet in my opinion. Shouldn't have put Stanford in my picks last week, but oh well. Nice to see Florida cover as well.
Year-to-Date: 10-12
Saturday, October 10, 2009
NFL Picks - Week 5
Year-to-Date: 32-13-1
Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS. I think Minnesota is one of the best teams in the NFC (up there with the Giants and Bears) and St. Louis is one of the worst teams in the NFC (down there with the Bucs). 10 points, even if it is on the road, is a small enough spread for one of the best teams in the league to beat one of the worst. Typically throughout this season we've seen "top" teams beat "bottom" teams by an average of approximately 20 points.
Cincinnati (+8.5) over BALTIMORE. Ugh, this is a tough one to bet on and I'd recommend staying away from it if at all possible. What I am betting on here is that Cinci's team is legit this year, especially their defense. We've seen Baltimore fail to cover against the Pats and the Chiefs, while the Bengals have only failed to cover against the Poops.
CAROLINA (-4) over Washington. I really think Washington is terrible and will continue to bet against them until they prove me wrong. Ironically, that could be this week whenever they face the Panthers and Delhomme. Please don't fuck this up for me Jake.
DETROIT (+10.5) over Pittsburgh. I think Mendenhall has a big game here but it is not enough to cover the spread. For whatever reason the Pittsburgh defense has let teams back in it during the fourth quarter this year (see: Cinci and SD games) and I think 10.5 is just too much to cover.
Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY. I almost took KC in this one but I didn't because their offense is dreadful. I think Dallas could score 21 points in this game and cover.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-15.5) over Oakland. If for some reason Eli doesn't play, I'm taking Oakland in this one. I took the G-MEN because why the hell would you want to put yourself through 60 minutes of football, watching, hoping that the Raiders would end up covering? That seems like a waste of three hours to me.
PHILADELPHIA (-15.5) over Tampa Bay. Similar to the NYG/OAK game, but in this one you know McNabb is starting. Tampa could cover this one - they looked pretty decent last week, but I'll take the bet on the premise that the Philly/Carolina game was for real and Philly is the dark horse in the NFC this year.
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland. Not buying into Cleveland - especially without Braylon. Buffalo usually plays well at home, and even though Trent Edwards sucks, he has Owens, Lynch, Jackson, and Evens as weapons. Pretty solid tool shed there for him to work with.
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over Atlanta. I still think Atlanta is for real, however, San Fran is a very legit team this year and with their exceptional defense, should be able to cover a 2.5 point spread.
Jacksonville (+1) over SEATTLE. Is Hasselbeck starting? If so, take the 'Hawks. If not, this should be an easy win for Jacksonville, even in the hostile environment.
Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA. I will continue to fade Arizona all year as their post-SB hype is killing their lines. They should be -2.5 in this one at worst.
New England (-3) over DENVER. A tough one to pick, no doubt. Do you take the old man or the young apprentice? I think Denver is pretty lucky to be undefeated at this point, even though the team has been much better than everyone expected this year. New England got a few more players back last week, looked great, and this week should be even more healed up.
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE. Is this line a joke? Indy is so much better than the Titans this year. I think you'd have to be high on multiple substances to take the Titans in this game. Like Jerry Garcia high.
New York Jets (-1.5) over MIAMI. I think this game sets a record for "most players combined from one college" with Michigan being the school. I don't think Braylon has a very big impact in this game, but he does make his presence known. I saw a stat the other day about Chad Henne, and let's just say he doesn't do well under pressure. The Jets bring the most pressure in the league. That's why I'm taking them here.
Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS. I think Minnesota is one of the best teams in the NFC (up there with the Giants and Bears) and St. Louis is one of the worst teams in the NFC (down there with the Bucs). 10 points, even if it is on the road, is a small enough spread for one of the best teams in the league to beat one of the worst. Typically throughout this season we've seen "top" teams beat "bottom" teams by an average of approximately 20 points.
Cincinnati (+8.5) over BALTIMORE. Ugh, this is a tough one to bet on and I'd recommend staying away from it if at all possible. What I am betting on here is that Cinci's team is legit this year, especially their defense. We've seen Baltimore fail to cover against the Pats and the Chiefs, while the Bengals have only failed to cover against the Poops.
CAROLINA (-4) over Washington. I really think Washington is terrible and will continue to bet against them until they prove me wrong. Ironically, that could be this week whenever they face the Panthers and Delhomme. Please don't fuck this up for me Jake.
DETROIT (+10.5) over Pittsburgh. I think Mendenhall has a big game here but it is not enough to cover the spread. For whatever reason the Pittsburgh defense has let teams back in it during the fourth quarter this year (see: Cinci and SD games) and I think 10.5 is just too much to cover.
Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY. I almost took KC in this one but I didn't because their offense is dreadful. I think Dallas could score 21 points in this game and cover.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-15.5) over Oakland. If for some reason Eli doesn't play, I'm taking Oakland in this one. I took the G-MEN because why the hell would you want to put yourself through 60 minutes of football, watching, hoping that the Raiders would end up covering? That seems like a waste of three hours to me.
PHILADELPHIA (-15.5) over Tampa Bay. Similar to the NYG/OAK game, but in this one you know McNabb is starting. Tampa could cover this one - they looked pretty decent last week, but I'll take the bet on the premise that the Philly/Carolina game was for real and Philly is the dark horse in the NFC this year.
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland. Not buying into Cleveland - especially without Braylon. Buffalo usually plays well at home, and even though Trent Edwards sucks, he has Owens, Lynch, Jackson, and Evens as weapons. Pretty solid tool shed there for him to work with.
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over Atlanta. I still think Atlanta is for real, however, San Fran is a very legit team this year and with their exceptional defense, should be able to cover a 2.5 point spread.
Jacksonville (+1) over SEATTLE. Is Hasselbeck starting? If so, take the 'Hawks. If not, this should be an easy win for Jacksonville, even in the hostile environment.
Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA. I will continue to fade Arizona all year as their post-SB hype is killing their lines. They should be -2.5 in this one at worst.
New England (-3) over DENVER. A tough one to pick, no doubt. Do you take the old man or the young apprentice? I think Denver is pretty lucky to be undefeated at this point, even though the team has been much better than everyone expected this year. New England got a few more players back last week, looked great, and this week should be even more healed up.
Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE. Is this line a joke? Indy is so much better than the Titans this year. I think you'd have to be high on multiple substances to take the Titans in this game. Like Jerry Garcia high.
New York Jets (-1.5) over MIAMI. I think this game sets a record for "most players combined from one college" with Michigan being the school. I don't think Braylon has a very big impact in this game, but he does make his presence known. I saw a stat the other day about Chad Henne, and let's just say he doesn't do well under pressure. The Jets bring the most pressure in the league. That's why I'm taking them here.
Friday, October 9, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 6
Smile like you mean it -
Michigan (+8) over IOWA. Look, Iowa was good the last time it played on a Saturday night on ABC (speaking of that, when was a Big 10 team that was "not that good" to start the season given two Saturday night games in 3 weeks? This has to be the first time, right?). Iowa City is a tough place to play, but I think Michigan fights through it. I'm not saying Michigan wins this game, but I think at the very worst they keep it close. We're talking about a team here that scored 14 points in the last five minutes of the State game, on the road, in the pouring rain. Giving them 8 points is a joke.
Stanford (Pick 'em) over OREGON STATE. The underlying statistics show that Stanford is a better team then they are ranked and are coming off wins against Washington and UCLA, both better teams than Oregon State. I also think Oregon State is looking ahead to next week when they play USC and have a little bit of a letdown in this game.
TEXAS (-32) over Colorado. This reminds me of one of those "but the spread is so large, maybe I should just take the underdog" games. Look, in this case - you should not. Colorado is plain awful this year. It's like the football team is consistently drinking Coors Light and smoking bud with the rest of the student body before the games.
Florida (-7) over LSU. I just don't think LSU is that good this year. They've struggled to win big against lesser opponents and lack real talent at their skill positions. I think Tebow plays and plays well. The Florida defense is still the best in the country and will keep LSU in check.
Michigan State (-4) over ILLINOIS. I am a little worried that Dantonio spent 99% of his offseason preparing for how to beat Michigan and that is why his team is 2-3. However, Illinois looks to have fallen off the face of the earth. Anytime they've played even a half decent team this year they have been slaughtered. I think Michigan State is one of the more underrated teams in the Big 10 and wins this by at least 7.
Michigan (+8) over IOWA. Look, Iowa was good the last time it played on a Saturday night on ABC (speaking of that, when was a Big 10 team that was "not that good" to start the season given two Saturday night games in 3 weeks? This has to be the first time, right?). Iowa City is a tough place to play, but I think Michigan fights through it. I'm not saying Michigan wins this game, but I think at the very worst they keep it close. We're talking about a team here that scored 14 points in the last five minutes of the State game, on the road, in the pouring rain. Giving them 8 points is a joke.
Stanford (Pick 'em) over OREGON STATE. The underlying statistics show that Stanford is a better team then they are ranked and are coming off wins against Washington and UCLA, both better teams than Oregon State. I also think Oregon State is looking ahead to next week when they play USC and have a little bit of a letdown in this game.
TEXAS (-32) over Colorado. This reminds me of one of those "but the spread is so large, maybe I should just take the underdog" games. Look, in this case - you should not. Colorado is plain awful this year. It's like the football team is consistently drinking Coors Light and smoking bud with the rest of the student body before the games.
Florida (-7) over LSU. I just don't think LSU is that good this year. They've struggled to win big against lesser opponents and lack real talent at their skill positions. I think Tebow plays and plays well. The Florida defense is still the best in the country and will keep LSU in check.
Michigan State (-4) over ILLINOIS. I am a little worried that Dantonio spent 99% of his offseason preparing for how to beat Michigan and that is why his team is 2-3. However, Illinois looks to have fallen off the face of the earth. Anytime they've played even a half decent team this year they have been slaughtered. I think Michigan State is one of the more underrated teams in the Big 10 and wins this by at least 7.
Monday, October 5, 2009
Weekend in Review
NFL Picks
This Week: 10-4
Last Week: 13-3
Year-to-Date: 32-13-1
NFL Fantasy Picks
What I got Right
Rising Stars
Manning and Cooley had big days, while the Giants D was alright and Moss at least scored a TD.
Sleepers
All of them - thanks Detroit for making this an easy category this week, and thanks to Knox for that special teams TD to save the Bears' defense. Although, the San Fran Defense really should have been here, so I missed that. Damn.
Duds
I'd have to say I got all of them right. Romo came out looking strong but fizzled in quarters 2 through 4. Sproles did nothing. Colston was held in check. Carlson had a better game than I expected, but not top 10. Jets D got steamrolled to a lesser extent than I expected but still not good.
What I got Wrong
Rising Stars
Benson - should have figured. Probably thinking about being on a boat or something.
Sleepers
None.
Duds
None.
College Football Picks
This Week: 2-3. I continue to suck at picking college games. The Michigan game especially hurt.
Year-to-date: 7-10
This Week: 10-4
Last Week: 13-3
Year-to-Date: 32-13-1
NFL Fantasy Picks
What I got Right
Rising Stars
Manning and Cooley had big days, while the Giants D was alright and Moss at least scored a TD.
Sleepers
All of them - thanks Detroit for making this an easy category this week, and thanks to Knox for that special teams TD to save the Bears' defense. Although, the San Fran Defense really should have been here, so I missed that. Damn.
Duds
I'd have to say I got all of them right. Romo came out looking strong but fizzled in quarters 2 through 4. Sproles did nothing. Colston was held in check. Carlson had a better game than I expected, but not top 10. Jets D got steamrolled to a lesser extent than I expected but still not good.
What I got Wrong
Rising Stars
Benson - should have figured. Probably thinking about being on a boat or something.
Sleepers
None.
Duds
None.
College Football Picks
This Week: 2-3. I continue to suck at picking college games. The Michigan game especially hurt.
Year-to-date: 7-10
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Fantasy Football Breakdown - Week 4
Rising Stars
QB: Eli Manning. The number 9 QB in fantasy is going up against the Chiefs this week. Although it is on the road, if I had Eli on my team I would definitely feel comfortable starting him in this matchup.
RB: Cedric Benson. How hard is it to get a DUI on a boat? Pretty hard. If my friends and I couldn't get one in high school or college, it's got to be damn hard. Cedric Benson has a DUI on a boat. But I like him here against the Poops.
WR: Randy Moss. Something tells me that having Welker back will help Moss out.
TE: Chris Cooley. TB is terrible.
D: Giants. Got to love that matchup with the Chiefs.
Sleepers
QB: Jay Cutler. Going up against the Lions helps as does his performance in the last two games. Don't look now but since throwing 1 TD and 4 INTs against the Packers, Cutler has thrown 5 TDs and only 1 INT.
RB: Matt Forte. He gets into the end zone this week - twice. I'm calling it. This will not be a good weekend for Detroit. I also like Coffee's matchup against the Rams this week.
WR: Chad Ochocinco. I don't like the Poops. Lots of "child please" in this game for 85.
TE: Greg Olsen. Might as well, thanks Detroit.
D: Bears. One more time for Detroit.
Duds
QB: Tony Romo. Not a lot to pick from here as the QB pool is pretty deep this year. Denver isn't an easy place to play and their D has been surprisingly solid this year. I would mention Rivers here but I think SD is down and throwing for most of the game, inflating his stats.
RB: Darren Sproles. I know the PIT defense isn't what it used to be, but I just don't see this scat back having a good day.
WR: Marques Colston. Brees likes to spread the ball around and I think going up against Revis is going to kill Colston this week. Probably something like 3 catches for 40 yards.
TE: John Carlson. I'm going to put him here until Hasselbeck gets back.
D: Jets. Minus 1 last week for this defense and now they get to face the Saints? Not good.
QB: Eli Manning. The number 9 QB in fantasy is going up against the Chiefs this week. Although it is on the road, if I had Eli on my team I would definitely feel comfortable starting him in this matchup.
RB: Cedric Benson. How hard is it to get a DUI on a boat? Pretty hard. If my friends and I couldn't get one in high school or college, it's got to be damn hard. Cedric Benson has a DUI on a boat. But I like him here against the Poops.
WR: Randy Moss. Something tells me that having Welker back will help Moss out.
TE: Chris Cooley. TB is terrible.
D: Giants. Got to love that matchup with the Chiefs.
Sleepers
QB: Jay Cutler. Going up against the Lions helps as does his performance in the last two games. Don't look now but since throwing 1 TD and 4 INTs against the Packers, Cutler has thrown 5 TDs and only 1 INT.
RB: Matt Forte. He gets into the end zone this week - twice. I'm calling it. This will not be a good weekend for Detroit. I also like Coffee's matchup against the Rams this week.
WR: Chad Ochocinco. I don't like the Poops. Lots of "child please" in this game for 85.
TE: Greg Olsen. Might as well, thanks Detroit.
D: Bears. One more time for Detroit.
Duds
QB: Tony Romo. Not a lot to pick from here as the QB pool is pretty deep this year. Denver isn't an easy place to play and their D has been surprisingly solid this year. I would mention Rivers here but I think SD is down and throwing for most of the game, inflating his stats.
RB: Darren Sproles. I know the PIT defense isn't what it used to be, but I just don't see this scat back having a good day.
WR: Marques Colston. Brees likes to spread the ball around and I think going up against Revis is going to kill Colston this week. Probably something like 3 catches for 40 yards.
TE: John Carlson. I'm going to put him here until Hasselbeck gets back.
D: Jets. Minus 1 last week for this defense and now they get to face the Saints? Not good.
Friday, October 2, 2009
NFL Picks - Week 4
Cincinnati Bengals (-6) over CLEVELAND BROWNS. This is a tough one. On one hand you have Cinci, who is probably laying the most points on the road since it made the playoffs earlier this decade. On the other hand you have the Cleveland Browns who don't have an offense. I think if the Browns are going to cover they'll need at least one TD return from Cribbs and I doubt that will happen. The Cinci defense is legit and Palmer looks decent this year.
CHICAGO BEARS (-10) over Detroit Lions. Congrats to the Lions who won last week. Too bad they go on the road against a Chicago team that is looking very strong. I expect big days from Cutler, Forte, and Hester as Chicago puts up a ton of points against the Detroit D.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-8.5) over Oakland Raiders. The Raiders got killed last week and I think that will be the story for the rest of their season. Houston has a better offense and a better defense. They should easily win by 10 or more.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10) over Seattle Seahawks. Call this betting against Seneca Wallace on the road against Peyton Manning. The Colts look like they are firing on all cylinders right now while the Seahawks look like... a beat up old Ford.
Tampa Bay Bucs (+7.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS. This worries me as the Bucs are starting a new QB and it could be a trap game. However, Jim Zorn is probably the worst coach in the NFL (or the JaMarcus Russell of coaches, if you will) and I don't see the skins doing anything until they replace Jason Campbell. If you're a skins fan, at least Santana Moss looked good last week, right?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3) over Tennessee Titans. A team who isn't that bad (Jacksonville) is getting points at home against a team that is 0-3? Sign me up for that.
New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. Fade the Chiefs this year, it would have won you money every week thus far. This is my lock of the week.
Baltimore Ravens (+2) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. This is a tough game to bet on and if I were you, I'd probably pass. The Patriots are poised to get a lot of starters back healthy this week and should build on last week's performance. However, I have a rule - if the current favorite to win the AFC or NFC is getting points, you take them.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS. I like Chad Henne but I don't like the Dolphins only getting 1.5 points at home against a very solid Buffalo team. Also, this isn't December, so it's not like the Bills are going to be traveling from 0 and snowy to 70 and sunny. Getting Lynch back adds another bullet to Buffalo's potent 9 mm offense.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9.5) over St. Louis Rams. Sorry Kyle Boller, but I'm not buying into you. The niners are a really good team this year and I think they easily cover this at home. No Frank Gore might be a problem, but I think Coffee steps up and has a pretty big game.
DENVER BRONCOS (+3) over Dallas Cowboys. Denver might be the league's worst undefeated team, but they sure do know how to find ways to win. I think Romo has a decent game here, but the Cowboys are not to be trusted (that is, unless you are betting on them against Delhomme and the Panthers - cha ching!)
San Diego Chargers (+7) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS. I am not buying into this Steelers team without Troy P. They don't have a running game and Big Ben can't win them all by himself. San Diego should have LDT back and I like Rivers as the best player on either offense.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) over Green Bay Packers. Boy, I really feel there is a chance that Favre might fuck this one up for his team given how bad he wants to gut punch the Packers. But in the end, Minnesota will sack Rodgers 999 times on the way to a big win on Monday night.
CHICAGO BEARS (-10) over Detroit Lions. Congrats to the Lions who won last week. Too bad they go on the road against a Chicago team that is looking very strong. I expect big days from Cutler, Forte, and Hester as Chicago puts up a ton of points against the Detroit D.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-8.5) over Oakland Raiders. The Raiders got killed last week and I think that will be the story for the rest of their season. Houston has a better offense and a better defense. They should easily win by 10 or more.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10) over Seattle Seahawks. Call this betting against Seneca Wallace on the road against Peyton Manning. The Colts look like they are firing on all cylinders right now while the Seahawks look like... a beat up old Ford.
Tampa Bay Bucs (+7.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS. This worries me as the Bucs are starting a new QB and it could be a trap game. However, Jim Zorn is probably the worst coach in the NFL (or the JaMarcus Russell of coaches, if you will) and I don't see the skins doing anything until they replace Jason Campbell. If you're a skins fan, at least Santana Moss looked good last week, right?
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+3) over Tennessee Titans. A team who isn't that bad (Jacksonville) is getting points at home against a team that is 0-3? Sign me up for that.
New York Giants (-8.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. Fade the Chiefs this year, it would have won you money every week thus far. This is my lock of the week.
Baltimore Ravens (+2) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. This is a tough game to bet on and if I were you, I'd probably pass. The Patriots are poised to get a lot of starters back healthy this week and should build on last week's performance. However, I have a rule - if the current favorite to win the AFC or NFC is getting points, you take them.
Buffalo Bills (-1.5) over MIAMI DOLPHINS. I like Chad Henne but I don't like the Dolphins only getting 1.5 points at home against a very solid Buffalo team. Also, this isn't December, so it's not like the Bills are going to be traveling from 0 and snowy to 70 and sunny. Getting Lynch back adds another bullet to Buffalo's potent 9 mm offense.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-9.5) over St. Louis Rams. Sorry Kyle Boller, but I'm not buying into you. The niners are a really good team this year and I think they easily cover this at home. No Frank Gore might be a problem, but I think Coffee steps up and has a pretty big game.
DENVER BRONCOS (+3) over Dallas Cowboys. Denver might be the league's worst undefeated team, but they sure do know how to find ways to win. I think Romo has a decent game here, but the Cowboys are not to be trusted (that is, unless you are betting on them against Delhomme and the Panthers - cha ching!)
San Diego Chargers (+7) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS. I am not buying into this Steelers team without Troy P. They don't have a running game and Big Ben can't win them all by himself. San Diego should have LDT back and I like Rivers as the best player on either offense.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-3) over Green Bay Packers. Boy, I really feel there is a chance that Favre might fuck this one up for his team given how bad he wants to gut punch the Packers. But in the end, Minnesota will sack Rodgers 999 times on the way to a big win on Monday night.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 5
After going 2-2 last week, here's hoping I do a little better on this week's picks.
Michigan (+3) over MICHIGAN STATE. The last time Michigan lost two games in a row to little brother was the sixties. I am a little worried about this one given last week's performance against Indiana, but I think State looked worse against Wisconsin. Some people are worried about Tate Forcier being a true freshman and this being his first game on the road but I am not. Is it more nerve wracking playing in front of 110K in Ann Arbor that are ready to ask for your head if you lose (see: Sheridan, Nick), or on the road in East Lansing? Probably not much of a difference. Michigan by 7.
Tulsa (-16) over RICE. As one of my Tulsa alum friends puts it "The rice owls are absolutely terrible and we should be able to put up 40-50 points." And I couldn't agree more. Tulsa will dominate on offense and win by 28.
Houston (-15.5) over UTEP. UTEP lost to Buffalo, who is 1-3 on the season. They also lost by 57 last week to Texas and 27 in week 2 to Kansas. Houston will be the third ranked team UTEP faces this year and I think their margin of victory falls somewhere between Texas and Kansas. Houston by 35.
INDIANA (+17.5) over Ohio State. Just because of how they looked against Michigan last week and how Ohio State has looked so far this year. Ohio State by 13.
MIAMI (+7.5) over Oklahoma. Look, I know that Miami didn't look good against Virginia Tech last week, but why should they? Va Tech likely has the best D they'll face all year, it was in Virginia, and it was raining cats and dogs. I think with better field conditions and a favorable home crowd, Miami bounces back this week. I don't necessarily think they will win this game, but they will cover. OU by 7.
YTD - 5-7
Michigan (+3) over MICHIGAN STATE. The last time Michigan lost two games in a row to little brother was the sixties. I am a little worried about this one given last week's performance against Indiana, but I think State looked worse against Wisconsin. Some people are worried about Tate Forcier being a true freshman and this being his first game on the road but I am not. Is it more nerve wracking playing in front of 110K in Ann Arbor that are ready to ask for your head if you lose (see: Sheridan, Nick), or on the road in East Lansing? Probably not much of a difference. Michigan by 7.
Tulsa (-16) over RICE. As one of my Tulsa alum friends puts it "The rice owls are absolutely terrible and we should be able to put up 40-50 points." And I couldn't agree more. Tulsa will dominate on offense and win by 28.
Houston (-15.5) over UTEP. UTEP lost to Buffalo, who is 1-3 on the season. They also lost by 57 last week to Texas and 27 in week 2 to Kansas. Houston will be the third ranked team UTEP faces this year and I think their margin of victory falls somewhere between Texas and Kansas. Houston by 35.
INDIANA (+17.5) over Ohio State. Just because of how they looked against Michigan last week and how Ohio State has looked so far this year. Ohio State by 13.
MIAMI (+7.5) over Oklahoma. Look, I know that Miami didn't look good against Virginia Tech last week, but why should they? Va Tech likely has the best D they'll face all year, it was in Virginia, and it was raining cats and dogs. I think with better field conditions and a favorable home crowd, Miami bounces back this week. I don't necessarily think they will win this game, but they will cover. OU by 7.
YTD - 5-7
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