Buy
QB - Peyton Manning. There are just so many QBs out there that are good, it's tough to recommend a buy here for this position. The reason I listed Peyton is he's fully healthy this year after being hurt all last season. He has been on fire this season (300+ yards in every game) and you don't have to pay what you would for Drew Brees to get him. I'd rank him in the 5-10 range in terms of fantasy value.
RB - Matt Forte. Yes, he has been bad as the Bears have been throwing a lot more than anyone expected and he's not catching the passes he was last year (Orton loves to check down, and Cutler is a gunslinger, so that's not a big surprise). I think when the weather gets cold (60 degrees here in Chicago), the Bears run more and he starts to perform like a first round talent.
WR - Donald Driver. I think he puts up more points than Jennings this year as Jennings relies on the deep passes and the GB line cannot give Rodgers enough time to throw the ball down the field. Driver had a sneaky good season last year and I think he was vastly underrated coming into this season.
TE - Brent Celek. He's probably on waivers in your league and he's tied for first among fantasy TEs. That should be enough. Also, he's not just blowing up this season - look at what he did in the NFC championship against the Cardinals last year.
Sell
QB - Tom Brady. Look, there are lot of good fantasy QBs out there and Brady is currently ranked the 15th best QB. I think if you took him in the late first / early second round and could get 4th round talent out of him - you should. Remember before he had Randy Moss (and was healthy) he was a 9th round pick. I would have put Tony Romo here but I think all of the negative publicity has hurt his trade value to the point you should probably just keep him.
RB - DeAngelo Williams. I like Williams as he helped ruin one of my fantasy teams last year when I faced him in the playoffs. Great guy. This year what does he have? 1) Jake Delhomme, 2) 2nd year RB Jonathan Stewart, and 3) Defenses that are focusing more on him after his breakout year. That's not a good formula for him. I'd call him 15th-25th overall talent if I were drafting today.
WR - Larry Fitzgerald. He's not going to be a top 3 WR this year and here's why: 1) Boldin is healthy this year (he put up a ton of points when he broke his jaw last year), 2) Kurt Warner is one year older, and 3) The Madden Cover jinx. I would trade him straight up for Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Marques Colston. Steve Smith is a close second here for his propensity to disappear in the year following a big year (and the whole Delhomme thing).
TE - Tony Gonzalez. A great TE, there is no doubting that. But there are a lot of good TEs out there with Celek and Vernon Davis performing this year. If you could get a decent WR (e.g., Cotchery) for him and still have another option at TE that is serviceable, I'd do it.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Monday, September 28, 2009
Weekend in Review
NFL Picks
13-3 - Probably my best week ever in terms of picks. If the Pittsburgh D could have kept the Bungles out of the end zone on fourth down, I would have went 14-2. I almost feel like Matthew McCaughney in that movie no one watched.
Last Week: 9-6-1
Year-to-Date: 22-9-1
NFL Fantasy Picks
What I got Right
Rising Stars
Flacco and McGahee crush the Browns, and Celek's HUGE day (100 yds, 1 TD)
Sleepers
Kolb's big day (327 yards, 2 TD passing, 1 TD rushing), Ryan Grant (OK so maybe not, but 99 yards aren't bad), Greg Jennings (100 yards > 0 yards), and probably Jason Witten (OK so I need a big game from him to win this week in fantasy).
Duds
All of them. Leftwich was benched, Gore got hurt (1 rush for 4 yards), Manningham was held to 55 yards and 0 TDs, Carlson was almost non-existent, and while the Bills D performed better than I expected, they still gave up 27 points.
What I got Wrong
Rising Stars
Andre Johnson didn't bust out (86 yards), Cooley was meh (38 yards), and Philly D was less than great (14 points allowed, 1 TO, 3 sacks)
Sleepers
Both defenses (Washington, Pittsburgh) were dreadful picks for me
Duds
None
College Football Picks
2-2
Better than last week at least.
Year-to-date: 5-7
13-3 - Probably my best week ever in terms of picks. If the Pittsburgh D could have kept the Bungles out of the end zone on fourth down, I would have went 14-2. I almost feel like Matthew McCaughney in that movie no one watched.
Last Week: 9-6-1
Year-to-Date: 22-9-1
NFL Fantasy Picks
What I got Right
Rising Stars
Flacco and McGahee crush the Browns, and Celek's HUGE day (100 yds, 1 TD)
Sleepers
Kolb's big day (327 yards, 2 TD passing, 1 TD rushing), Ryan Grant (OK so maybe not, but 99 yards aren't bad), Greg Jennings (100 yards > 0 yards), and probably Jason Witten (OK so I need a big game from him to win this week in fantasy).
Duds
All of them. Leftwich was benched, Gore got hurt (1 rush for 4 yards), Manningham was held to 55 yards and 0 TDs, Carlson was almost non-existent, and while the Bills D performed better than I expected, they still gave up 27 points.
What I got Wrong
Rising Stars
Andre Johnson didn't bust out (86 yards), Cooley was meh (38 yards), and Philly D was less than great (14 points allowed, 1 TO, 3 sacks)
Sleepers
Both defenses (Washington, Pittsburgh) were dreadful picks for me
Duds
None
College Football Picks
2-2
Better than last week at least.
Year-to-date: 5-7
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Fantasy Football Breakdown - Week 3
Rising Stars
QB: Joe Flacco. I don't like the Cleveland defense at all. I do like the fact that Flacco is playing at home, where he burned the Chiefs for 25 fantasy points in Week 1.
RB: Willis McGehee. Another Raven. See Flacco, Joe.
WR: Andre Johnson. There is no Revis on the Jags to stop him. I think he has a huge day.
TE: Chris Cooley / Brent Celek. Love their matchups this week.
D: Eagles D. Playing the Chiefs who might not have Dwayne Bowe = fantasy heaven.
Sleepers
QB: Kevin Kolb. Playing the Chiefs this week at home. That should be enough, but he had a good week last week if you take away his INTs. I don't think he throws more than 1 this week as the KC defense is not that good. If I didn't have one of the top 7 QBs, I'd start Kolb this week. Aaron Rodgers is another good pick this week.
RB: Ryan Grant. Playing the Rams. Basically if you're playing the Rams or the Chiefs and you're not in the top 10, you're an automatic sleeper.
WR: Greg Jennings. He'll get more than 0 points this week. I guarantee it.
TE: Jason Witten. Currently 11th - I'll guarantee he's in the top 10 after this week.
D: Steelers / Redskins. Solid matchups.
Duds
QB: Byron Leftwich. Technically in the top 10 at number 9. I list him here because I like the Giants D and there really aren't any weaker plays in the top 10 for QBs this week.
RB: Frank Gore. The Minny defense is legit and I think Gore has been playing over his head the last two weeks. Cedric Benson should also have a pretty bad game.
WR: Mario Manningham. A little dinged up and I just don't see him replicating what he did in weeks 1 and 2. He is still the man though.
TE: John Carlson. I don't like Seneca Wallace or the matchup with the Bears this week.
D: Bills. We might as well call this the "top 10 defenses going against New Orleans" every week it happens.
QB: Joe Flacco. I don't like the Cleveland defense at all. I do like the fact that Flacco is playing at home, where he burned the Chiefs for 25 fantasy points in Week 1.
RB: Willis McGehee. Another Raven. See Flacco, Joe.
WR: Andre Johnson. There is no Revis on the Jags to stop him. I think he has a huge day.
TE: Chris Cooley / Brent Celek. Love their matchups this week.
D: Eagles D. Playing the Chiefs who might not have Dwayne Bowe = fantasy heaven.
Sleepers
QB: Kevin Kolb. Playing the Chiefs this week at home. That should be enough, but he had a good week last week if you take away his INTs. I don't think he throws more than 1 this week as the KC defense is not that good. If I didn't have one of the top 7 QBs, I'd start Kolb this week. Aaron Rodgers is another good pick this week.
RB: Ryan Grant. Playing the Rams. Basically if you're playing the Rams or the Chiefs and you're not in the top 10, you're an automatic sleeper.
WR: Greg Jennings. He'll get more than 0 points this week. I guarantee it.
TE: Jason Witten. Currently 11th - I'll guarantee he's in the top 10 after this week.
D: Steelers / Redskins. Solid matchups.
Duds
QB: Byron Leftwich. Technically in the top 10 at number 9. I list him here because I like the Giants D and there really aren't any weaker plays in the top 10 for QBs this week.
RB: Frank Gore. The Minny defense is legit and I think Gore has been playing over his head the last two weeks. Cedric Benson should also have a pretty bad game.
WR: Mario Manningham. A little dinged up and I just don't see him replicating what he did in weeks 1 and 2. He is still the man though.
TE: John Carlson. I don't like Seneca Wallace or the matchup with the Bears this week.
D: Bills. We might as well call this the "top 10 defenses going against New Orleans" every week it happens.
NFL Picks - Week 3
At the last second...
NEW YORK JETS (-2) over Tennessee Titans. I don't know why this is -2 or why it has moved to -2 from -3. The Jets have a better offense, defense, and special teams unit. Sure they just came off a big win over the Pats and might be experiencing a little hangover, but I doubt it.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS. I think the O-line problems continue for Green Bay, but their defense should be good enough to bottle up St. Louis' pitiful offense. I don't see the Rams scoring more than 14 here, so GB only needs 3 TDs to cover.
DETROIT LIONS (+6.5) over Washington Redskins. I feel like this is a popular pick which worries me a little. The Redskins have looked dreadful this year and Zorn is for sure on the hot seat. Jason Campbell isn't the answer and the Lions will be playing to avoid tying the longest losing streak in NFL history (20 games).
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-8.0) over Kansas City Chiefs. No McNabb, no problem. Kolb has a big day and leads the Eagles to a 10 point victory. I like this bet because the general public is usually wrong and since opening the line has moved from -9.5 (meaning people have been putting money on the Chiefs).
Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. Fool me once New England.... I just don't think the Pats are that good this year. Their defense has been gutted, they have no running back, and Brady is clearly not 100%. The Falcons, however, have proven that they are legit. Ryan, Turner, White, and Gonzalez might be the best QB/RB/WR/TE combo in the league (especially fantasy-wise). The Falcon D is underrated as well. If I was to bet on this game I'd probably bet on the Falcons' moneyline.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars. I think Schaub has a big day here as the Jax D isn't that great. Probably a high scoring game with the Texans pulling out a win by 7 to 10 points. I think Slaton could breakout here as well.
San Francisco 49ers (+7) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS. I don't like that AP is dinged up and I don't like Favre at all. The Niners proved to me last week that they are for real - one of the toughest teams in the NFL. And when a defensive-minded, tough team is getting 7 points, I take it.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13.5) over Cleveland Browns. Brady Quinn is awful and so is their running game without Jamal Lewis 100%. Flacco is probably the most underrated QB in the NFL right now and should have a field day against this defense. Baltimore by 21 points.
New York Giants (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCS. This is a tough one and I'm not confidant at all in this pick. I don't like all the injuries the Giants have sustained and the Phillips injury will be tough pill for them to swallow as the year goes on. However, I think the Bucs are awful. NYG squeaks out a win here by 7 points.
New Orleans Saints (-6) over BUFFALO BILLS. Another tough one. The Bills are looking like a good team this year but the Saints might be the best team in the NFL. I think Brees continues to be the best player in the NFL this year and throws all over the Bills. New Orleans by 14.
Chicago Bears (-2.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS. Man, Cutler sure could fuck this up for me. Seattle is notoriously a tough place to play and he obviously struggled on the road in Week 1. However, Hasselbeck is the 'Hawks key player and he's out this week. I just don't believe that Seneca Wallace can win this one. If you're taking the Seahawks, take the moneyline.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS. The Cinci D is much improved this year, which gets their front office a huge +1 from me for drafting well. However, the loss to the Bears last week will motivate this Steeler team and they will win by 10-14 points.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6) over Miami Dolphins. Chalk this one up to an east coast team traveling to the west coast. When you factor in they're playing this game after a Monday night game it should be even more obvious to take the Chargers in this one. Sproles and Rivers have big days. San Diego by 14.
Denver Broncos (-1.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS. The win last week in KC was a fluke. JaMarcus Russell is the worst QB in the NFL and the Broncos offense is actually not that bad. Too bad Orton can't find his WRs for shit. Denver by 7.
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS. I don't believe in Arizona at all this year and last week Manning and the Colts proved they can win on the road. Colts by 7.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-8.5) over Carolina Panthers. I hate Jake Delhomme. Cowboys by 10.
NEW YORK JETS (-2) over Tennessee Titans. I don't know why this is -2 or why it has moved to -2 from -3. The Jets have a better offense, defense, and special teams unit. Sure they just came off a big win over the Pats and might be experiencing a little hangover, but I doubt it.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS RAMS. I think the O-line problems continue for Green Bay, but their defense should be good enough to bottle up St. Louis' pitiful offense. I don't see the Rams scoring more than 14 here, so GB only needs 3 TDs to cover.
DETROIT LIONS (+6.5) over Washington Redskins. I feel like this is a popular pick which worries me a little. The Redskins have looked dreadful this year and Zorn is for sure on the hot seat. Jason Campbell isn't the answer and the Lions will be playing to avoid tying the longest losing streak in NFL history (20 games).
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-8.0) over Kansas City Chiefs. No McNabb, no problem. Kolb has a big day and leads the Eagles to a 10 point victory. I like this bet because the general public is usually wrong and since opening the line has moved from -9.5 (meaning people have been putting money on the Chiefs).
Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS. Fool me once New England.... I just don't think the Pats are that good this year. Their defense has been gutted, they have no running back, and Brady is clearly not 100%. The Falcons, however, have proven that they are legit. Ryan, Turner, White, and Gonzalez might be the best QB/RB/WR/TE combo in the league (especially fantasy-wise). The Falcon D is underrated as well. If I was to bet on this game I'd probably bet on the Falcons' moneyline.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars. I think Schaub has a big day here as the Jax D isn't that great. Probably a high scoring game with the Texans pulling out a win by 7 to 10 points. I think Slaton could breakout here as well.
San Francisco 49ers (+7) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS. I don't like that AP is dinged up and I don't like Favre at all. The Niners proved to me last week that they are for real - one of the toughest teams in the NFL. And when a defensive-minded, tough team is getting 7 points, I take it.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13.5) over Cleveland Browns. Brady Quinn is awful and so is their running game without Jamal Lewis 100%. Flacco is probably the most underrated QB in the NFL right now and should have a field day against this defense. Baltimore by 21 points.
New York Giants (-6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCS. This is a tough one and I'm not confidant at all in this pick. I don't like all the injuries the Giants have sustained and the Phillips injury will be tough pill for them to swallow as the year goes on. However, I think the Bucs are awful. NYG squeaks out a win here by 7 points.
New Orleans Saints (-6) over BUFFALO BILLS. Another tough one. The Bills are looking like a good team this year but the Saints might be the best team in the NFL. I think Brees continues to be the best player in the NFL this year and throws all over the Bills. New Orleans by 14.
Chicago Bears (-2.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS. Man, Cutler sure could fuck this up for me. Seattle is notoriously a tough place to play and he obviously struggled on the road in Week 1. However, Hasselbeck is the 'Hawks key player and he's out this week. I just don't believe that Seneca Wallace can win this one. If you're taking the Seahawks, take the moneyline.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS. The Cinci D is much improved this year, which gets their front office a huge +1 from me for drafting well. However, the loss to the Bears last week will motivate this Steeler team and they will win by 10-14 points.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-6) over Miami Dolphins. Chalk this one up to an east coast team traveling to the west coast. When you factor in they're playing this game after a Monday night game it should be even more obvious to take the Chargers in this one. Sproles and Rivers have big days. San Diego by 14.
Denver Broncos (-1.5) over OAKLAND RAIDERS. The win last week in KC was a fluke. JaMarcus Russell is the worst QB in the NFL and the Broncos offense is actually not that bad. Too bad Orton can't find his WRs for shit. Denver by 7.
Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) over ARIZONA CARDINALS. I don't believe in Arizona at all this year and last week Manning and the Colts proved they can win on the road. Colts by 7.
DALLAS COWBOYS (-8.5) over Carolina Panthers. I hate Jake Delhomme. Cowboys by 10.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
College Football Picks - Week 4
Going with the road rage this week as I pick all road teams. Home field advantages is overrated.
Speaking of overrated and rage - how retarded is it that Notre Dame is included in ESPN Chicago? Did anyone tell ESPN that South Bend is in Indiana? Might as well including University of Michigan in ESPN Chicago as well seeing as how there are more alumni there than ND alumni. Fuck you ESPN.
Iowa (+10) at PENN STATE. I think this one plays out very similarly to the MSU/ND game last week (hey it's even the same spread!). Penn State gets a few points here because of how they played last year and their continued dominance into this season. But guess what? They're 0-3 against the spread in 2009. Todd McShay also pointed out that they lost 3 starting (All American I believe) linemen from 2008 and their line play this year has left something to be desired. Add in the fact Iowa beat them last year and I like this bet. Even if it is at night, with the white out and constant blaring of "Zombie Nation".
Michigan State (+3) at WISCONSIN. This is more of me betting on "Wisconsin is awful" than "MSU is great". MSU is 1-2 this year, but both of their losses have been by less than 3 points. It would be devastating to Dantonio & Co. if they lost again this week by less than a field goal, but it could happen. And if it did? Who cares - they cover anyway. Plus I can't name a single person on the Wisconsin offense and I keep going back to that Michigan game they lost last year (which was also the fourth game of the season).
Mississippi (-4) at SOUTH CAROLINA AND...
Missouri (-7) at NEVADA
Picking the Thursday and Friday games as a combo for what is normally reserved as my third "lock" pick. Hey, I gotta make up for going 1-2 last week somehow, right? Typically the Ole Miss / Gamecock game is close but I think Snead brings "it" this year and blows them out. Also, Mizzou is good this year. I keep telling people this - Chase Daniel couldn't play in the NFL, Chase Coffman is a bum, and Jeremy Maclin is nothing special. The only player that they really lost is Ziggy Hood. Nevada also got crushed by ND, which has a great passing game (which, surprise, Mizzou also has). The bandwagon Missouri fans will be happy with this one.
Speaking of overrated and rage - how retarded is it that Notre Dame is included in ESPN Chicago? Did anyone tell ESPN that South Bend is in Indiana? Might as well including University of Michigan in ESPN Chicago as well seeing as how there are more alumni there than ND alumni. Fuck you ESPN.
Iowa (+10) at PENN STATE. I think this one plays out very similarly to the MSU/ND game last week (hey it's even the same spread!). Penn State gets a few points here because of how they played last year and their continued dominance into this season. But guess what? They're 0-3 against the spread in 2009. Todd McShay also pointed out that they lost 3 starting (All American I believe) linemen from 2008 and their line play this year has left something to be desired. Add in the fact Iowa beat them last year and I like this bet. Even if it is at night, with the white out and constant blaring of "Zombie Nation".
Michigan State (+3) at WISCONSIN. This is more of me betting on "Wisconsin is awful" than "MSU is great". MSU is 1-2 this year, but both of their losses have been by less than 3 points. It would be devastating to Dantonio & Co. if they lost again this week by less than a field goal, but it could happen. And if it did? Who cares - they cover anyway. Plus I can't name a single person on the Wisconsin offense and I keep going back to that Michigan game they lost last year (which was also the fourth game of the season).
Mississippi (-4) at SOUTH CAROLINA AND...
Missouri (-7) at NEVADA
Picking the Thursday and Friday games as a combo for what is normally reserved as my third "lock" pick. Hey, I gotta make up for going 1-2 last week somehow, right? Typically the Ole Miss / Gamecock game is close but I think Snead brings "it" this year and blows them out. Also, Mizzou is good this year. I keep telling people this - Chase Daniel couldn't play in the NFL, Chase Coffman is a bum, and Jeremy Maclin is nothing special. The only player that they really lost is Ziggy Hood. Nevada also got crushed by ND, which has a great passing game (which, surprise, Mizzou also has). The bandwagon Missouri fans will be happy with this one.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
NFL Fantasy Football Buy & Sell - Week 3
Buy
Joe Flacco - This year's Philip Rivers? Perhaps, but maybe not that good. He was amazing as a rookie last year (beating the Titans in TEN in the playoffs should have been your clue), and this year he has improved. I think he's a top 7 QB at year end. If I could give up a 4th round pick to get him, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Look to teams that have him as a backup and make a decent offer.
Aaron Rodgers - Depending on what you have to pay to get him. He's been clobbered both weeks thus far and still is the 12th best fantasy QB. I think he's at his floor. His ceiling is top 3 production, but I think he lands somewhere in between. If his owner has a backup that is currently ranked higher than him (Leftwich, Ryan, Schaub, Edwards, etc.), make a fair offer.
Darren Sproles - LDT is done. Finished. Over. Sproles will be the main man in SD for this year and will be a top 10 back by season's end. I would value him as a 2nd or 3rd rounder.
Willis McGahee - Unlike Tomlinson, he is not done. Two good weeks to start the season and currently 5th overall among running backs. I don't think he stays in the top 5 but should easily be top 15 this year. I'd happily start him every week, just don't overpay for him.
Matt Forte - Still like him but you've got to push him down a little this year. I'd say late first / early second and if you can get him for anything less, do it in a heartbeat.
Brandon Jacobs - Like Matt Forte, if you can get him for early 3rd round / 4th round talent, I'd do it.
Dwayne Bowe - Love what he has done against the Ravens and then Nmadi. Especially when you factor in that it was with two different QBs - this guy is poised for a 800 Yard, 10 TD season and will finish in the top 10 of WRs.
Anquan Boldin - Banged up in week 1, that's going to hurt his ranking. However, he looked good last week and should continue to build off that success. I'm also building into his projection a Larry Fitzgerald injury (Madden Cover Jinx, see: everyone on the Madden Cover since Eddie George).
Greg Jennings - There is a major problem here, don't get me wrong. I think most people see it, however, and you can get him on the cheap right now. Rodgers simply needs more time to get Jennings the ball deep. Also, he's dropped a few. If you could get him for a 5th rounder, I'd do it. Driver is for real too this year, in case you were wondering.
Sell
Tony Romo - He'll put up great numbers in September and October, but that only helps you get to the fantasy playoffs. Once in the playoffs he'll forget to show up (look at his December splits) and you won't win your league. If you sold for a decent value (2nd or 3rd round pick) after week 1, kudos to you.
LaDainian Tomlinson - He's done. Simple as that.
Fred Jackson - Currently the 4th overall fantasy RB. I think that hurts Lynch a lot as they will likely split carries when he returns. They did this last year and Lynch was fine, but I think with TO in the mix there aren't enough balls to go around. Try to sell your opponent on the "Jackson is for real" and try to get a 6th to 8th round player out of him.
Marion Barber - I had him last year and he was great until he got hurt, then he was never the same. This year he's already hurt and probably out 2 weeks. I'd try to trade him or get Felix Jones, whichever is the best for your team.
Calvin Johnson - He's still Megatron but he's on the DEATH of NFL teams. He won't finish the season as a top 3 WR (where he was drafted). I'd put him in the 7-15 range and if you can get someone like Reggie Wayne for him, I'd do it in a second. Look to any fan from Southeastern Michigan and make the trade.
Terrell Owens - I think what he did on Sunday (52 yards, 1 TD) is his ceiling for most games. His floor? 1 catch for 20 yards.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh - Housh, meet Seneca Wallace. Seneca, meet Housh.
Braylon Edwards - I love Braylon as a person, but as a fantasy WR, it's going to be a lot more like 2008 than 2007. Thanks Brady Quinn!
Fantasy Football Free Agent Wire - Week 3
Pickups
Mario Manningham (WR) and Steve Smith (WR) - NYG. 10 catches each from these guys against Dallas should be an instant add for any team that doesn't have 3 top 10 WRs on their team. For the long term, expect Smith to be more consistent while Manningham might experience a slight fall off once all of Eli's WRs are healthy.
Laurent Robinson (WR) - STL. Bulger's new favorite weapon has the only STL TD thus far this season. I watched him play Week 1 (thank you free NFL Sunday Ticket) and thought he looked good. He followed that up by scoring a TD in week 2. Should be a solid #4 WR for fantasy teams this year.
Byron Leftwich (QB) - TB. Can't argue with what he has done the first two weeks of the season. He outperformed Brady when comparing their performances against Buffalo, and he did it on the road (Brady was at home). I don't think he's a top 10 QB for the rest of the season, but top 15 seems about right. I think it is also a plus that he gets to play on a warm weather team.
Johnny Knox (WR) - CHI. I wouldn't use a waiver claim on him, but he looks like the #2 WR in Chicago and if you remember what Cutler did with a rookie #2 WR last year (Eddie Royal), you should probably pick this guy up. Especially encouraging given that Cutler went to him on 3rd and goal with the game on the line and he produced.
Kevin Kolb (QB) - PHI. Put up big numbers last week and gets the Chiefs at home this week. Not a long term option but I think McNabb rests one more week and this guy blows up.
Brent Celek (TE) - PHI. Top 10 fantasy TE this year - book it.
Broncos D. Two good games and they get Oakland this week. I like them.
Drops
QBs - Obvious names are Russell and Delhomme. Other names I couldn't blame you on are Hasselbeck (I see him playing through this injury and suffering all season), Stafford, Quinn, and Pennington.
RBs - Glen Coffee (you'd be betting on a Gore injury if you kept him), Laurence Maroney (never happening), Jerious Norwood (same as Coffee), any PIT RB (I've given up - they look terrible and the team looks more than ready to let Big Ben throw the ball down the field), Sammy Morris, Earnest Graham.
WRs - Bobby Engram (not happening in KC, he's done), C. Henry / L. Coles (if you're not Ochocinco, you're not anything in CIN this year), Kevin Curtis, Donnie Avery, and Eddie Royal (sorry, Kyle Orton is better at chugging Jack Daniels than producing stud fantasy WRs).
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Week 2 Hits and Misses
Week 2 was a roller coaster for my picks. Mostly down, but there were some ups. On to the highlights:
Fantasy Football Good Calls:
Sanchez, Manning, Witten, Gonzalez, Falcons D (should have gone with the Broncos though, fuck you Delhomme), Matt Schaub (huge), Chris Johnson (huge), Redskins D, and all of the duds that I picked (unless Crayton had a big second half - I absolutely killed it on the duds this week). Unfortunately for one of my friends he failed to heed my advice of starting Schaub over Hasselbeck and it cost him the win this week.
Fantasy Football Bad Calls:
Jennings (wow, terrible day), Portis (not too bad, but still not going to help you win your league), Berrian (nothing special), and sort of on Olsen (better than last week but not groundbreaking)
NFL Weekly Picks:
9-6-1, thank you Peyton and Eli Manning for turning a "Meh" week into a solid one.
College Weekly Picks:
Lost some money this week. Not good.
Fantasy Football Good Calls:
Sanchez, Manning, Witten, Gonzalez, Falcons D (should have gone with the Broncos though, fuck you Delhomme), Matt Schaub (huge), Chris Johnson (huge), Redskins D, and all of the duds that I picked (unless Crayton had a big second half - I absolutely killed it on the duds this week). Unfortunately for one of my friends he failed to heed my advice of starting Schaub over Hasselbeck and it cost him the win this week.
Fantasy Football Bad Calls:
Jennings (wow, terrible day), Portis (not too bad, but still not going to help you win your league), Berrian (nothing special), and sort of on Olsen (better than last week but not groundbreaking)
NFL Weekly Picks:
9-6-1, thank you Peyton and Eli Manning for turning a "Meh" week into a solid one.
College Weekly Picks:
Lost some money this week. Not good.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Fantasy Football Breakdown - Week 2
Each week I will do an analysis on fantasy football player matchups, broken down into the following categories:
- Rising stars: Players who are known to be good, but I think will be even better for that given week
- Sleepers: Players outside the top 10 who will provide top 10 production for that week
- Duds: Top 10 players you should consider sitting
Each week I will break it down by position, including QB, RB, WR, TE, and D.
Rising Stars
QB: Mark Sanchez / Eli Manning - I like both of these guys in general. I think Manning always starts out the season strong and fades, while Sanchez is the real deal. I like them even more when you see who they are playing this week (NE and Dallas, respectively) and what juggernauts Trent Edwards (18 points, 6th overall) and Byron Leftwich (15 points, 11th overall) were able to do against them. Sanchez and Manning are better than Edwards and Leftwich.
RB: Clinton Portis - He's playing against the Rams. Need I say more? OK, last year against the Rams her ran for 129 yards on 21 carries and had 2 TDs. He also caught one pass for 14 yards. Last week against the Rams, Julius Jones was a top 5 back. I rest my case.
WR: Greg Jennings - I like Jennings a lot this year as long as Rodgers is throwing him deep balls. I think he catches one against Bengals on Sunday, and possible another 10-20 yarder. Big day from this guy. Sorry Leon Hall.
TE: Jason Witten / Tony Gonzalez - I think you could put them here every week. Two of the most consistent fantasy TEs of recent history.
D: Falcons - They shut down Miami last week and this week they get Delhomme. That's like dangling a couple of premium stakes in front of a lion that hasn't eaten in two weeks. Big game here for them. 2 picks and a TD. I'm calling it.
Sleepers
QB: Matt Schaub - Big Ben threw for over 350 yards against the Titans last week, and I think Schaub has a nice bounce back game here. If Walter starts and plays well, I like him even more.
RB: Chris Johnson - Houston gave up over 100 yards and 2 TDs last week to Thomas Jones. While I am a little worried Johnson could suffer from a sophomore curse, I think he will vastly improve over his performance last week (would be kind of hard not too). Other players I like to perform better this week (who were terrible last week) include Stephen Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Matt Forte, and Michael Turner.
WR: Bernard Berrian - He's playing the Lions. End of story. I also think that while ADP has a big game, it's not as big as people think (not nearly as huge as his unreal game last week). Favre has gotta eat too.
TE: Greg Olsen - Has to do better than last week. Cutler will bounce back and that will help. I don't think he's a lock for a TD, but at least 40-50 yards. Dallas Clark should also improve over last week.
D: Redskins - Playing against STL. Looked OK against the Giants last week. I think they have a solid effort here (8-12 points).
Duds
QB: Matt Hasselbeck - Did you see what the 49er defense did to Kurt Warner last week? Granted, Warner might be done, but Hasselbeck isn't the most mobile QB around, and Walter Jones is still hurt. I could see him getting knocked around a bit, plus he did throw 2 picks against the Rams.
RB: Julius Jones - This might become a trend. No way he repeats last week's performance against the Rams. Patrick Willis will eat his babies. Another player that should come back to earth is Tim Hightower. I just don't see him catching as many balls.
WR: Patrick Crayton / Devin Hester - Playing against better defenses this week and both were big beneficiaries of long TD passes in their first game. While I think it is possible one pulls it off again this week, it just won't happen again for both. I'd mark these guys down for something in the range of 5 receptions for 45 yards. I think you could also say Brandon Stokley and Louis Murphey here as well, but if you're starting them on your team, you need to find something else to do with your Sundays. Dwayne Bowe could also struggle against NA.
TE: Jeremey Shockey - Last week's game was not reality for Mr. Shockey. He's gone from the king of NY to the king of trash. I hope he was drunk or high when he was spending all of those hours in that tattoo parlor. (FYI he didn't catch a TD last year and then gets two in week one. That's more than just playing against the Lions, it's luck. Brees spreads the ball out way too much for him to be a consistent fantasy TE)
D: Eagles - OUT: Jake Delhomme. IN: Drew Brees. End of story. Did you know they put up 35 points against the Panthers last week? Is that a record for fantasy defenses? Why aren't more people talking about this?
- Rising stars: Players who are known to be good, but I think will be even better for that given week
- Sleepers: Players outside the top 10 who will provide top 10 production for that week
- Duds: Top 10 players you should consider sitting
Each week I will break it down by position, including QB, RB, WR, TE, and D.
Rising Stars
QB: Mark Sanchez / Eli Manning - I like both of these guys in general. I think Manning always starts out the season strong and fades, while Sanchez is the real deal. I like them even more when you see who they are playing this week (NE and Dallas, respectively) and what juggernauts Trent Edwards (18 points, 6th overall) and Byron Leftwich (15 points, 11th overall) were able to do against them. Sanchez and Manning are better than Edwards and Leftwich.
RB: Clinton Portis - He's playing against the Rams. Need I say more? OK, last year against the Rams her ran for 129 yards on 21 carries and had 2 TDs. He also caught one pass for 14 yards. Last week against the Rams, Julius Jones was a top 5 back. I rest my case.
WR: Greg Jennings - I like Jennings a lot this year as long as Rodgers is throwing him deep balls. I think he catches one against Bengals on Sunday, and possible another 10-20 yarder. Big day from this guy. Sorry Leon Hall.
TE: Jason Witten / Tony Gonzalez - I think you could put them here every week. Two of the most consistent fantasy TEs of recent history.
D: Falcons - They shut down Miami last week and this week they get Delhomme. That's like dangling a couple of premium stakes in front of a lion that hasn't eaten in two weeks. Big game here for them. 2 picks and a TD. I'm calling it.
Sleepers
QB: Matt Schaub - Big Ben threw for over 350 yards against the Titans last week, and I think Schaub has a nice bounce back game here. If Walter starts and plays well, I like him even more.
RB: Chris Johnson - Houston gave up over 100 yards and 2 TDs last week to Thomas Jones. While I am a little worried Johnson could suffer from a sophomore curse, I think he will vastly improve over his performance last week (would be kind of hard not too). Other players I like to perform better this week (who were terrible last week) include Stephen Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Matt Forte, and Michael Turner.
WR: Bernard Berrian - He's playing the Lions. End of story. I also think that while ADP has a big game, it's not as big as people think (not nearly as huge as his unreal game last week). Favre has gotta eat too.
TE: Greg Olsen - Has to do better than last week. Cutler will bounce back and that will help. I don't think he's a lock for a TD, but at least 40-50 yards. Dallas Clark should also improve over last week.
D: Redskins - Playing against STL. Looked OK against the Giants last week. I think they have a solid effort here (8-12 points).
Duds
QB: Matt Hasselbeck - Did you see what the 49er defense did to Kurt Warner last week? Granted, Warner might be done, but Hasselbeck isn't the most mobile QB around, and Walter Jones is still hurt. I could see him getting knocked around a bit, plus he did throw 2 picks against the Rams.
RB: Julius Jones - This might become a trend. No way he repeats last week's performance against the Rams. Patrick Willis will eat his babies. Another player that should come back to earth is Tim Hightower. I just don't see him catching as many balls.
WR: Patrick Crayton / Devin Hester - Playing against better defenses this week and both were big beneficiaries of long TD passes in their first game. While I think it is possible one pulls it off again this week, it just won't happen again for both. I'd mark these guys down for something in the range of 5 receptions for 45 yards. I think you could also say Brandon Stokley and Louis Murphey here as well, but if you're starting them on your team, you need to find something else to do with your Sundays. Dwayne Bowe could also struggle against NA.
TE: Jeremey Shockey - Last week's game was not reality for Mr. Shockey. He's gone from the king of NY to the king of trash. I hope he was drunk or high when he was spending all of those hours in that tattoo parlor. (FYI he didn't catch a TD last year and then gets two in week one. That's more than just playing against the Lions, it's luck. Brees spreads the ball out way too much for him to be a consistent fantasy TE)
D: Eagles - OUT: Jake Delhomme. IN: Drew Brees. End of story. Did you know they put up 35 points against the Panthers last week? Is that a record for fantasy defenses? Why aren't more people talking about this?
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Jake Delhomme is the Man Part III
Last one for the night.
Perhaps it is a bad sign when your QB is "starring" in commercials for..... Bojangles? Oh well, he is the $42.5 million man. Kudos to the Panthers brass, this is like investing all of the money you have ever earned in Enron, MCI, Bear, or Lehman. I'd love to see a commercial with Delhomme, Kenny Lay (DIG HIM UP!), Jimmy Cayne, and Dick Fuld.
Jake Delhomme is the Man Part II
I saw this and thought it was appropriate. By the way a little background on Delhomme:
January 2009: 17 for 34, 205 yards, 1 TD, 5 INTs, 39.1 QB rating.
April 2009: At a young 34 years of age (!!!), Delhomme signs a 5 year deal for $42.5 million ($20 million guaranteed)
You think it can't get worse? Bad news Carolina fans. It can:
September 2009 (Game 1 2009 season): 7 for 17, 73 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 14.7 (!!!) QB rating.
Somewhere in Texas, Ryan Leaf is having a good laugh.
Jake Delhomme - #1 QB, Carolina Panthers
Turn to the 2:40 mark if you want to really hear how Steve Smith feels about Jake Delhomme.
NFL Football Weekend Picks - Week 2
This part of my blog will be very similar to the college football weekly picks, however I will focus on every game and provide a short rationale (Home team in caps, pick in bold).
TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5) over Houston Texans. The Titans looked good against the Steelers and will have had 10 days of rest to prepare for the Texans. The Texans looked awful against the Jets, and while that could mean the Jets are a dark horse Super Bowl team this year, I'm betting the Texans are just not that good. Also, Tennessee beat Houston by 19 points at home last year.
Final Score: Titans 27 Texans 13
New England Patriots (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS. Jets looked great last week, and Patriots looked good on their last two drives. I'll buy into the "last two drives" Brady rather than the "slow start" Brady and take that as an opportunity for some easy money here. The Rex Ryan voicemail doesn't help this spread at all, either.
Final Score: Patriots 31 Jets 24
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) over Cincinnati Bengals. Good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose. The two most memorable plays of last week came from these teams with the good team (GB) winning and the bad team (Cinci) losing. More of the same this week, although I do think Cinci's defense is legit.
Final Score: Packers 24 Bengals 10
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) over Oakland Raiders. I think Russell is the second worst QB in the league (we'll get to the worst later) and will lose this game for the Raiders. If Cassel starts, this is a lock. Even if he doesn't, the Arrowhead crowd uses their uncanny ability to imbibe alcohol to fuel a victory here.
Final Score: Chiefs 17 Raiders 10
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) over Arizona Cardinals. This is a tough one. I'm betting on a few things here: (1) Jacksonville lost to Indy (a better team than Arizona) on the road by only 2 points last week, (2) The "Super Bowl Loser Hangover", (3) Kurt Warner being done (and perhaps selling his soul to the devil last year for a SB appearance and a puppy), and (4) The Madden Cover Curse (hello Larry Fitzgerald).
Final Score: Jaguars 28 Cardinals 17
Minnesota Vikings (-10) over DETROIT LIONS. Detroit lost big to New Orleans last week, and while that wasn't at home - I don't think Ford Field provides much of an advantage. Also, if you think Detroit is better than Cleveland, pass me some of what you are smoking, because you are high (Minny beat Cleveland by 14 on the road last week).
Final Score: Vikings 35 Lions 13
ATLANTA FALCONS (-6) over Carolina Panthers. Lock of the week. Jake Delhomme is the worst QB in the NFL and I cannot fathom why the Panthers front brass decided it was a good idea to bring him back over the offseason. If the Panthers win 6 games this year I will be shocked. Also, last week in the "Who was real last year - Atlanta or Miami?" game, the Falcons easily answered that question. And really, it should have been obvious. Matt Ryan 2nd year + Addition of Gonzo + Solid backup to Turner even if he is cursed + Underrated defense = Good football team.
Final Score: Falcons 31 Panthers 14
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS. I am not very confidant about this pick. The 'Skins kept it close last week against the Giants and Haynesworth should help stuff the only weapon the Rams have (SJax). However, I just can't bet on Jason Campbell -9.5. He looked lost out there last week and his backup is Todd Collins. No thanks.
Final Score: Redskins 17 Rams 10
BUFFALO BILLS (-5) over Tampa Bay Bucs. I think the Bills wake up from the loss last week and win this game. Not a big fan of betting on Leftwich, either. Not really much to say about this game other than I won't be using the NFL Sunday Ticket to watch it. Boring matchup.
Final Score: Bills 27 Bucs 17
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. I believe in a couple of things from last week - the Cardinals are worse than people realize, the Seahawks are MUCH better than the average gambler realizes (last year was just one abortion after another for them), and the Rams aren't as bad as last year (making last week's win even more impressive for the 'Hawks).
Final Score: Seahawks 24 49ers 20
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) over Baltimore Ravens. I believe both of these teams were huge disappointments last week. The question is, which team is for real (if any)? I believe that is the Chargers. Sproles gives them a 2nd and 3rd gear that LDT simply does not have anymore and I think the defense plays better this week. I do think Flacco is for real and will end up being an excellent pick for the Ravens.
Final Score: Chargers 24 Ravens 17
DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over Cleveland Browns. Denver is the dark horse of the AFC West. If their D can hold up and Orton can get the ball 25 yards in the air to their vertical threats, they could win the division. I don't like Quinn or Anderson and I think Braylon will play more like his 2008 version than his 2007 version.
Final Score: Broncos 27 Browns 16
CHICAGO BEARS (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers. Chicago getting points at home? OK, thanks. No Troy hurts the Steelers D and I think Cutler bounces back this week. Lack of Bears LB doesn't hurt them in this game since Fast Willie Parker has turned into Slow Willie Parker.
Final Score: Steelers 21 Bears 20
New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS. The House that Jerry Built opens to a loss. The G-Men are the best team in the NFC right now and the Cowboys got a nice image boost by beating down a bad Tampa Bay team. I think all of the hype of the new stadium hurts the 'Boys and Eli leads his team to victory.
Final Score: Giants 31 Cowboys 21
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS. Lots of 3 point spreads this week, eh? Here is what I think of this game: (1) Indy is a much better team than Miami, who played out of their league last year, (2) Due to the game being in Miami, it will be closer than the talent level of these two teams would indicate, and (3) Addai and Wayne looked great last week and that is huge for Indy. GAMBLERS NOTE: If the field is saturated due to rain, or it is raining hard during the game, take the Dolphins and the under. Better running backs and points at home in the rain = $$$.
Final Score: Colts 27 Dolphins 17
YTD Picks: 0-0
TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5) over Houston Texans. The Titans looked good against the Steelers and will have had 10 days of rest to prepare for the Texans. The Texans looked awful against the Jets, and while that could mean the Jets are a dark horse Super Bowl team this year, I'm betting the Texans are just not that good. Also, Tennessee beat Houston by 19 points at home last year.
Final Score: Titans 27 Texans 13
New England Patriots (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS. Jets looked great last week, and Patriots looked good on their last two drives. I'll buy into the "last two drives" Brady rather than the "slow start" Brady and take that as an opportunity for some easy money here. The Rex Ryan voicemail doesn't help this spread at all, either.
Final Score: Patriots 31 Jets 24
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) over Cincinnati Bengals. Good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose. The two most memorable plays of last week came from these teams with the good team (GB) winning and the bad team (Cinci) losing. More of the same this week, although I do think Cinci's defense is legit.
Final Score: Packers 24 Bengals 10
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) over Oakland Raiders. I think Russell is the second worst QB in the league (we'll get to the worst later) and will lose this game for the Raiders. If Cassel starts, this is a lock. Even if he doesn't, the Arrowhead crowd uses their uncanny ability to imbibe alcohol to fuel a victory here.
Final Score: Chiefs 17 Raiders 10
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) over Arizona Cardinals. This is a tough one. I'm betting on a few things here: (1) Jacksonville lost to Indy (a better team than Arizona) on the road by only 2 points last week, (2) The "Super Bowl Loser Hangover", (3) Kurt Warner being done (and perhaps selling his soul to the devil last year for a SB appearance and a puppy), and (4) The Madden Cover Curse (hello Larry Fitzgerald).
Final Score: Jaguars 28 Cardinals 17
Minnesota Vikings (-10) over DETROIT LIONS. Detroit lost big to New Orleans last week, and while that wasn't at home - I don't think Ford Field provides much of an advantage. Also, if you think Detroit is better than Cleveland, pass me some of what you are smoking, because you are high (Minny beat Cleveland by 14 on the road last week).
Final Score: Vikings 35 Lions 13
ATLANTA FALCONS (-6) over Carolina Panthers. Lock of the week. Jake Delhomme is the worst QB in the NFL and I cannot fathom why the Panthers front brass decided it was a good idea to bring him back over the offseason. If the Panthers win 6 games this year I will be shocked. Also, last week in the "Who was real last year - Atlanta or Miami?" game, the Falcons easily answered that question. And really, it should have been obvious. Matt Ryan 2nd year + Addition of Gonzo + Solid backup to Turner even if he is cursed + Underrated defense = Good football team.
Final Score: Falcons 31 Panthers 14
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS. I am not very confidant about this pick. The 'Skins kept it close last week against the Giants and Haynesworth should help stuff the only weapon the Rams have (SJax). However, I just can't bet on Jason Campbell -9.5. He looked lost out there last week and his backup is Todd Collins. No thanks.
Final Score: Redskins 17 Rams 10
BUFFALO BILLS (-5) over Tampa Bay Bucs. I think the Bills wake up from the loss last week and win this game. Not a big fan of betting on Leftwich, either. Not really much to say about this game other than I won't be using the NFL Sunday Ticket to watch it. Boring matchup.
Final Score: Bills 27 Bucs 17
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. I believe in a couple of things from last week - the Cardinals are worse than people realize, the Seahawks are MUCH better than the average gambler realizes (last year was just one abortion after another for them), and the Rams aren't as bad as last year (making last week's win even more impressive for the 'Hawks).
Final Score: Seahawks 24 49ers 20
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) over Baltimore Ravens. I believe both of these teams were huge disappointments last week. The question is, which team is for real (if any)? I believe that is the Chargers. Sproles gives them a 2nd and 3rd gear that LDT simply does not have anymore and I think the defense plays better this week. I do think Flacco is for real and will end up being an excellent pick for the Ravens.
Final Score: Chargers 24 Ravens 17
DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over Cleveland Browns. Denver is the dark horse of the AFC West. If their D can hold up and Orton can get the ball 25 yards in the air to their vertical threats, they could win the division. I don't like Quinn or Anderson and I think Braylon will play more like his 2008 version than his 2007 version.
Final Score: Broncos 27 Browns 16
CHICAGO BEARS (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers. Chicago getting points at home? OK, thanks. No Troy hurts the Steelers D and I think Cutler bounces back this week. Lack of Bears LB doesn't hurt them in this game since Fast Willie Parker has turned into Slow Willie Parker.
Final Score: Steelers 21 Bears 20
New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS. The House that Jerry Built opens to a loss. The G-Men are the best team in the NFC right now and the Cowboys got a nice image boost by beating down a bad Tampa Bay team. I think all of the hype of the new stadium hurts the 'Boys and Eli leads his team to victory.
Final Score: Giants 31 Cowboys 21
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS. Lots of 3 point spreads this week, eh? Here is what I think of this game: (1) Indy is a much better team than Miami, who played out of their league last year, (2) Due to the game being in Miami, it will be closer than the talent level of these two teams would indicate, and (3) Addai and Wayne looked great last week and that is huge for Indy. GAMBLERS NOTE: If the field is saturated due to rain, or it is raining hard during the game, take the Dolphins and the under. Better running backs and points at home in the rain = $$$.
Final Score: Colts 27 Dolphins 17
YTD Picks: 0-0
College Football Weekend Picks - Week 2
Each week I'll give you three teams I would bet on, you know - if it were legal to do so. I will also provide 5 other picks without the detailed analysis. If you're in Nevada, enjoy. Any other state - remember, this is just "for fun". (Note: teams I'm picking in caps and home teams in bold)
TOP THREE PICKS
1) FLORIDA (-29.5) versus Tennessee: Here is why I like Florida: (1) The spread is less than 30 (I think they'll win by around 40 points); (2) Lane Kiffin's "Welcome to Tennessee Speech" has to be playing all week down in Gainesville, doesn't it? (3) Because of #2, I don't see the Gators letting up in the second half (that is not SEC football after all - it's all about winning and winning big down south) (4) The game is in Gainesville and Florida won by 24 points last year in Knoxville with basically the same team (minus Percy Harvin of course). (5) Since losing to Ole Miss last year, Florida has defeated their opponents by 30 or more points in 9 out of 11 games (including an average margin of victory of 54.5 points this season).
Summary: Florida wallops UT because they are the best team in college football, they are playing at home, and Lane Kiffin is primed to eat crow.
Final Score: Florida 52 Tennessee 17
2) MICHIGAN STATE (+10) versus Notre Dame: Yes this game is in South Bend and yes the Irish are likely to be fueled by the loss to Michigan and the pummelling from the media, but I just don't see them covering the spread. (1) Clausen is great, as are Floyd and Tate but Floyd is banged up and MSU's defensive secondary is slightly stronger than Michigan's. (2) MSU's QBs are underrated and should pick apart the ND defense, similar to what Tate Forcier accomplished (Cousins currently leads the Big Ten in passing efficiency and is 6th nationally). (3) Since 2003, ND hasn't beaten the Spartans by 10 points or more, and 8 out of the last 10 games have been decided by less than 10 points. (4) It is my personal belief that Weis has spent more time eating and complaining about the refs at the Michigan game (really? you're going to score a 65 yard touchdown with 1 second left? Really? Kordell Stewart is not coming out of that locker room. Sorry, Charlie) than he has planning for MSU. (5) Expect the student body at ND to be lackluster if the Irish get out to a slow start. And of course, if you're in any doubt, take the school with the more attractive females. In this case, MSU wins by a landslide.
Summary: MSU keeps it close the entire game after jumping out to an early lead. In the end, ND's talent on offense is simply too much for the Spartans to handle.
Final Score: Notre Dame 35 Michigan State 31
3) VIRGINIA TECH (-5) versus Nebraska: The only thing that scares me about this pick is it might be too obvious. What do the people in Vegas know that I don't? Here is what I do know: (1) Nebraska has beaten down on two lackluster teams this season thus far, and is, well.. Nebraska (large fan base = less favorable spread for your team). (2) Last year Nebraska faced three ranked opponents (VA Tech is currently ranked 13th) and went 0-3, losing each game by more than 5 points. (3) Of those three losses, Nebraska lost by an average of 25 points, including a 35 point loss to Missouri at home. (4) The last three seasons Va Tech has lost it's first game to a ranked opponent, only to win by a large margin in their next game versus a ranked opponent. The Nebraska game will make it four years in a row.
Summary: Nebraska fans push the spread lower than it should be while Va Tech wins its second game against a ranked opponent following a loss in their first.
Final Score: Va Tech 28 Nebraska 10
OTHER FIVE PICKS
PENN STATE (-30) over Temple. Daryll Clark is good, Temple is not (sorry Mr. Cosby).
Texas Tech (+17.5) over TEXAS. TT does not have Moneytree, but Texas isn't 17.5 points better. More like 10-14 points.
ARKANSAS (-1.5) over Georgia. Mallett puts Arkansas over the top and Georgia has looked terrible in its first two games. Arkansas extra week off to prep for Georgia doesn't hurt, either.
BYU (-7.5) over Florida State. This is classic value based on FSU's brand name getting them some love, while gamblers aren't sold on BYU.
Eastern Michigan (+24) over MICHIGAN. Michigan has ND hangover, Eastern played them close (33-22) in 2007, and Eastern has played better this year than historically. Michigan still wins (by 17-21 points) but won't cover. (Note: If Michigan does cover - this means they are for real, and barring injuries, look out B10)
PICK SUMMARY
Top Three Picks YTD: 0-0
Other Five Picks YTD: 0-0
Total YTD: 0-0
TOP THREE PICKS
1) FLORIDA (-29.5) versus Tennessee: Here is why I like Florida: (1) The spread is less than 30 (I think they'll win by around 40 points); (2) Lane Kiffin's "Welcome to Tennessee Speech" has to be playing all week down in Gainesville, doesn't it? (3) Because of #2, I don't see the Gators letting up in the second half (that is not SEC football after all - it's all about winning and winning big down south) (4) The game is in Gainesville and Florida won by 24 points last year in Knoxville with basically the same team (minus Percy Harvin of course). (5) Since losing to Ole Miss last year, Florida has defeated their opponents by 30 or more points in 9 out of 11 games (including an average margin of victory of 54.5 points this season).
Summary: Florida wallops UT because they are the best team in college football, they are playing at home, and Lane Kiffin is primed to eat crow.
Final Score: Florida 52 Tennessee 17
2) MICHIGAN STATE (+10) versus Notre Dame: Yes this game is in South Bend and yes the Irish are likely to be fueled by the loss to Michigan and the pummelling from the media, but I just don't see them covering the spread. (1) Clausen is great, as are Floyd and Tate but Floyd is banged up and MSU's defensive secondary is slightly stronger than Michigan's. (2) MSU's QBs are underrated and should pick apart the ND defense, similar to what Tate Forcier accomplished (Cousins currently leads the Big Ten in passing efficiency and is 6th nationally). (3) Since 2003, ND hasn't beaten the Spartans by 10 points or more, and 8 out of the last 10 games have been decided by less than 10 points. (4) It is my personal belief that Weis has spent more time eating and complaining about the refs at the Michigan game (really? you're going to score a 65 yard touchdown with 1 second left? Really? Kordell Stewart is not coming out of that locker room. Sorry, Charlie) than he has planning for MSU. (5) Expect the student body at ND to be lackluster if the Irish get out to a slow start. And of course, if you're in any doubt, take the school with the more attractive females. In this case, MSU wins by a landslide.
Summary: MSU keeps it close the entire game after jumping out to an early lead. In the end, ND's talent on offense is simply too much for the Spartans to handle.
Final Score: Notre Dame 35 Michigan State 31
3) VIRGINIA TECH (-5) versus Nebraska: The only thing that scares me about this pick is it might be too obvious. What do the people in Vegas know that I don't? Here is what I do know: (1) Nebraska has beaten down on two lackluster teams this season thus far, and is, well.. Nebraska (large fan base = less favorable spread for your team). (2) Last year Nebraska faced three ranked opponents (VA Tech is currently ranked 13th) and went 0-3, losing each game by more than 5 points. (3) Of those three losses, Nebraska lost by an average of 25 points, including a 35 point loss to Missouri at home. (4) The last three seasons Va Tech has lost it's first game to a ranked opponent, only to win by a large margin in their next game versus a ranked opponent. The Nebraska game will make it four years in a row.
Summary: Nebraska fans push the spread lower than it should be while Va Tech wins its second game against a ranked opponent following a loss in their first.
Final Score: Va Tech 28 Nebraska 10
OTHER FIVE PICKS
PENN STATE (-30) over Temple. Daryll Clark is good, Temple is not (sorry Mr. Cosby).
Texas Tech (+17.5) over TEXAS. TT does not have Moneytree, but Texas isn't 17.5 points better. More like 10-14 points.
ARKANSAS (-1.5) over Georgia. Mallett puts Arkansas over the top and Georgia has looked terrible in its first two games. Arkansas extra week off to prep for Georgia doesn't hurt, either.
BYU (-7.5) over Florida State. This is classic value based on FSU's brand name getting them some love, while gamblers aren't sold on BYU.
Eastern Michigan (+24) over MICHIGAN. Michigan has ND hangover, Eastern played them close (33-22) in 2007, and Eastern has played better this year than historically. Michigan still wins (by 17-21 points) but won't cover. (Note: If Michigan does cover - this means they are for real, and barring injuries, look out B10)
PICK SUMMARY
Top Three Picks YTD: 0-0
Other Five Picks YTD: 0-0
Total YTD: 0-0
Welcome to the Drill
Hello everyone and welcome to my blog. The purpose of this blog is to provide users with detailed information on each week's sporting events. In the fall, we will cover both NFL and college football. Winter and spring will be focused on the NBA and college basketball. Finally, summer will focus on the MLB.
The blog will include (but is not limited to):
- Weekly college football picks
- Weekly NFL football picks
- Weekly NFL fantasy football analysis
- Weekly NFL stud and dud column
I hope you all enjoy.
The blog will include (but is not limited to):
- Weekly college football picks
- Weekly NFL football picks
- Weekly NFL fantasy football analysis
- Weekly NFL stud and dud column
I hope you all enjoy.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
