College Football Weekend Picks - Week 2

Each week I'll give you three teams I would bet on, you know - if it were legal to do so. I will also provide 5 other picks without the detailed analysis. If you're in Nevada, enjoy. Any other state - remember, this is just "for fun". (Note: teams I'm picking in caps and home teams in bold)

TOP THREE PICKS

1) FLORIDA (-29.5) versus Tennessee: Here is why I like Florida: (1) The spread is less than 30 (I think they'll win by around 40 points); (2) Lane Kiffin's "Welcome to Tennessee Speech" has to be playing all week down in Gainesville, doesn't it? (3) Because of #2, I don't see the Gators letting up in the second half (that is not SEC football after all - it's all about winning and winning big down south) (4) The game is in Gainesville and Florida won by 24 points last year in Knoxville with basically the same team (minus Percy Harvin of course). (5) Since losing to Ole Miss last year, Florida has defeated their opponents by 30 or more points in 9 out of 11 games (including an average margin of victory of 54.5 points this season).

Summary: Florida wallops UT because they are the best team in college football, they are playing at home, and Lane Kiffin is primed to eat crow.

Final Score: Florida 52 Tennessee 17

2) MICHIGAN STATE (+10) versus Notre Dame: Yes this game is in South Bend and yes the Irish are likely to be fueled by the loss to Michigan and the pummelling from the media, but I just don't see them covering the spread. (1) Clausen is great, as are Floyd and Tate but Floyd is banged up and MSU's defensive secondary is slightly stronger than Michigan's. (2) MSU's QBs are underrated and should pick apart the ND defense, similar to what Tate Forcier accomplished (Cousins currently leads the Big Ten in passing efficiency and is 6th nationally). (3) Since 2003, ND hasn't beaten the Spartans by 10 points or more, and 8 out of the last 10 games have been decided by less than 10 points. (4) It is my personal belief that Weis has spent more time eating and complaining about the refs at the Michigan game (really? you're going to score a 65 yard touchdown with 1 second left? Really? Kordell Stewart is not coming out of that locker room. Sorry, Charlie) than he has planning for MSU. (5) Expect the student body at ND to be lackluster if the Irish get out to a slow start. And of course, if you're in any doubt, take the school with the more attractive females. In this case, MSU wins by a landslide.

Summary: MSU keeps it close the entire game after jumping out to an early lead. In the end, ND's talent on offense is simply too much for the Spartans to handle.

Final Score: Notre Dame 35 Michigan State 31

3) VIRGINIA TECH (-5) versus Nebraska: The only thing that scares me about this pick is it might be too obvious. What do the people in Vegas know that I don't? Here is what I do know: (1) Nebraska has beaten down on two lackluster teams this season thus far, and is, well.. Nebraska (large fan base = less favorable spread for your team). (2) Last year Nebraska faced three ranked opponents (VA Tech is currently ranked 13th) and went 0-3, losing each game by more than 5 points. (3) Of those three losses, Nebraska lost by an average of 25 points, including a 35 point loss to Missouri at home. (4) The last three seasons Va Tech has lost it's first game to a ranked opponent, only to win by a large margin in their next game versus a ranked opponent. The Nebraska game will make it four years in a row.

Summary: Nebraska fans push the spread lower than it should be while Va Tech wins its second game against a ranked opponent following a loss in their first.

Final Score: Va Tech 28 Nebraska 10


OTHER FIVE PICKS

PENN STATE (-30) over Temple. Daryll Clark is good, Temple is not (sorry Mr. Cosby).

Texas Tech (+17.5) over TEXAS. TT does not have Moneytree, but Texas isn't 17.5 points better. More like 10-14 points.

ARKANSAS (-1.5) over Georgia. Mallett puts Arkansas over the top and Georgia has looked terrible in its first two games. Arkansas extra week off to prep for Georgia doesn't hurt, either.

BYU (-7.5) over Florida State. This is classic value based on FSU's brand name getting them some love, while gamblers aren't sold on BYU.

Eastern Michigan (+24) over MICHIGAN. Michigan has ND hangover, Eastern played them close (33-22) in 2007, and Eastern has played better this year than historically. Michigan still wins (by 17-21 points) but won't cover. (Note: If Michigan does cover - this means they are for real, and barring injuries, look out B10)

PICK SUMMARY

Top Three Picks YTD: 0-0
Other Five Picks YTD: 0-0
Total YTD: 0-0