This part of my blog will be very similar to the college football weekly picks, however I will focus on every game and provide a short rationale (Home team in caps, pick in bold).
TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5) over Houston Texans. The Titans looked good against the Steelers and will have had 10 days of rest to prepare for the Texans. The Texans looked awful against the Jets, and while that could mean the Jets are a dark horse Super Bowl team this year, I'm betting the Texans are just not that good. Also, Tennessee beat Houston by 19 points at home last year.
Final Score: Titans 27 Texans 13
New England Patriots (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS. Jets looked great last week, and Patriots looked good on their last two drives. I'll buy into the "last two drives" Brady rather than the "slow start" Brady and take that as an opportunity for some easy money here. The Rex Ryan voicemail doesn't help this spread at all, either.
Final Score: Patriots 31 Jets 24
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) over Cincinnati Bengals. Good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose. The two most memorable plays of last week came from these teams with the good team (GB) winning and the bad team (Cinci) losing. More of the same this week, although I do think Cinci's defense is legit.
Final Score: Packers 24 Bengals 10
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) over Oakland Raiders. I think Russell is the second worst QB in the league (we'll get to the worst later) and will lose this game for the Raiders. If Cassel starts, this is a lock. Even if he doesn't, the Arrowhead crowd uses their uncanny ability to imbibe alcohol to fuel a victory here.
Final Score: Chiefs 17 Raiders 10
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) over Arizona Cardinals. This is a tough one. I'm betting on a few things here: (1) Jacksonville lost to Indy (a better team than Arizona) on the road by only 2 points last week, (2) The "Super Bowl Loser Hangover", (3) Kurt Warner being done (and perhaps selling his soul to the devil last year for a SB appearance and a puppy), and (4) The Madden Cover Curse (hello Larry Fitzgerald).
Final Score: Jaguars 28 Cardinals 17
Minnesota Vikings (-10) over DETROIT LIONS. Detroit lost big to New Orleans last week, and while that wasn't at home - I don't think Ford Field provides much of an advantage. Also, if you think Detroit is better than Cleveland, pass me some of what you are smoking, because you are high (Minny beat Cleveland by 14 on the road last week).
Final Score: Vikings 35 Lions 13
ATLANTA FALCONS (-6) over Carolina Panthers. Lock of the week. Jake Delhomme is the worst QB in the NFL and I cannot fathom why the Panthers front brass decided it was a good idea to bring him back over the offseason. If the Panthers win 6 games this year I will be shocked. Also, last week in the "Who was real last year - Atlanta or Miami?" game, the Falcons easily answered that question. And really, it should have been obvious. Matt Ryan 2nd year + Addition of Gonzo + Solid backup to Turner even if he is cursed + Underrated defense = Good football team.
Final Score: Falcons 31 Panthers 14
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS. I am not very confidant about this pick. The 'Skins kept it close last week against the Giants and Haynesworth should help stuff the only weapon the Rams have (SJax). However, I just can't bet on Jason Campbell -9.5. He looked lost out there last week and his backup is Todd Collins. No thanks.
Final Score: Redskins 17 Rams 10
BUFFALO BILLS (-5) over Tampa Bay Bucs. I think the Bills wake up from the loss last week and win this game. Not a big fan of betting on Leftwich, either. Not really much to say about this game other than I won't be using the NFL Sunday Ticket to watch it. Boring matchup.
Final Score: Bills 27 Bucs 17
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. I believe in a couple of things from last week - the Cardinals are worse than people realize, the Seahawks are MUCH better than the average gambler realizes (last year was just one abortion after another for them), and the Rams aren't as bad as last year (making last week's win even more impressive for the 'Hawks).
Final Score: Seahawks 24 49ers 20
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) over Baltimore Ravens. I believe both of these teams were huge disappointments last week. The question is, which team is for real (if any)? I believe that is the Chargers. Sproles gives them a 2nd and 3rd gear that LDT simply does not have anymore and I think the defense plays better this week. I do think Flacco is for real and will end up being an excellent pick for the Ravens.
Final Score: Chargers 24 Ravens 17
DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over Cleveland Browns. Denver is the dark horse of the AFC West. If their D can hold up and Orton can get the ball 25 yards in the air to their vertical threats, they could win the division. I don't like Quinn or Anderson and I think Braylon will play more like his 2008 version than his 2007 version.
Final Score: Broncos 27 Browns 16
CHICAGO BEARS (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers. Chicago getting points at home? OK, thanks. No Troy hurts the Steelers D and I think Cutler bounces back this week. Lack of Bears LB doesn't hurt them in this game since Fast Willie Parker has turned into Slow Willie Parker.
Final Score: Steelers 21 Bears 20
New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS. The House that Jerry Built opens to a loss. The G-Men are the best team in the NFC right now and the Cowboys got a nice image boost by beating down a bad Tampa Bay team. I think all of the hype of the new stadium hurts the 'Boys and Eli leads his team to victory.
Final Score: Giants 31 Cowboys 21
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS. Lots of 3 point spreads this week, eh? Here is what I think of this game: (1) Indy is a much better team than Miami, who played out of their league last year, (2) Due to the game being in Miami, it will be closer than the talent level of these two teams would indicate, and (3) Addai and Wayne looked great last week and that is huge for Indy. GAMBLERS NOTE: If the field is saturated due to rain, or it is raining hard during the game, take the Dolphins and the under. Better running backs and points at home in the rain = $$$.
Final Score: Colts 27 Dolphins 17
YTD Picks: 0-0
TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5) over Houston Texans. The Titans looked good against the Steelers and will have had 10 days of rest to prepare for the Texans. The Texans looked awful against the Jets, and while that could mean the Jets are a dark horse Super Bowl team this year, I'm betting the Texans are just not that good. Also, Tennessee beat Houston by 19 points at home last year.
Final Score: Titans 27 Texans 13
New England Patriots (-3.5) over NEW YORK JETS. Jets looked great last week, and Patriots looked good on their last two drives. I'll buy into the "last two drives" Brady rather than the "slow start" Brady and take that as an opportunity for some easy money here. The Rex Ryan voicemail doesn't help this spread at all, either.
Final Score: Patriots 31 Jets 24
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-9) over Cincinnati Bengals. Good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose. The two most memorable plays of last week came from these teams with the good team (GB) winning and the bad team (Cinci) losing. More of the same this week, although I do think Cinci's defense is legit.
Final Score: Packers 24 Bengals 10
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-3) over Oakland Raiders. I think Russell is the second worst QB in the league (we'll get to the worst later) and will lose this game for the Raiders. If Cassel starts, this is a lock. Even if he doesn't, the Arrowhead crowd uses their uncanny ability to imbibe alcohol to fuel a victory here.
Final Score: Chiefs 17 Raiders 10
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) over Arizona Cardinals. This is a tough one. I'm betting on a few things here: (1) Jacksonville lost to Indy (a better team than Arizona) on the road by only 2 points last week, (2) The "Super Bowl Loser Hangover", (3) Kurt Warner being done (and perhaps selling his soul to the devil last year for a SB appearance and a puppy), and (4) The Madden Cover Curse (hello Larry Fitzgerald).
Final Score: Jaguars 28 Cardinals 17
Minnesota Vikings (-10) over DETROIT LIONS. Detroit lost big to New Orleans last week, and while that wasn't at home - I don't think Ford Field provides much of an advantage. Also, if you think Detroit is better than Cleveland, pass me some of what you are smoking, because you are high (Minny beat Cleveland by 14 on the road last week).
Final Score: Vikings 35 Lions 13
ATLANTA FALCONS (-6) over Carolina Panthers. Lock of the week. Jake Delhomme is the worst QB in the NFL and I cannot fathom why the Panthers front brass decided it was a good idea to bring him back over the offseason. If the Panthers win 6 games this year I will be shocked. Also, last week in the "Who was real last year - Atlanta or Miami?" game, the Falcons easily answered that question. And really, it should have been obvious. Matt Ryan 2nd year + Addition of Gonzo + Solid backup to Turner even if he is cursed + Underrated defense = Good football team.
Final Score: Falcons 31 Panthers 14
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) over WASHINGTON REDSKINS. I am not very confidant about this pick. The 'Skins kept it close last week against the Giants and Haynesworth should help stuff the only weapon the Rams have (SJax). However, I just can't bet on Jason Campbell -9.5. He looked lost out there last week and his backup is Todd Collins. No thanks.
Final Score: Redskins 17 Rams 10
BUFFALO BILLS (-5) over Tampa Bay Bucs. I think the Bills wake up from the loss last week and win this game. Not a big fan of betting on Leftwich, either. Not really much to say about this game other than I won't be using the NFL Sunday Ticket to watch it. Boring matchup.
Final Score: Bills 27 Bucs 17
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS. I believe in a couple of things from last week - the Cardinals are worse than people realize, the Seahawks are MUCH better than the average gambler realizes (last year was just one abortion after another for them), and the Rams aren't as bad as last year (making last week's win even more impressive for the 'Hawks).
Final Score: Seahawks 24 49ers 20
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-3) over Baltimore Ravens. I believe both of these teams were huge disappointments last week. The question is, which team is for real (if any)? I believe that is the Chargers. Sproles gives them a 2nd and 3rd gear that LDT simply does not have anymore and I think the defense plays better this week. I do think Flacco is for real and will end up being an excellent pick for the Ravens.
Final Score: Chargers 24 Ravens 17
DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over Cleveland Browns. Denver is the dark horse of the AFC West. If their D can hold up and Orton can get the ball 25 yards in the air to their vertical threats, they could win the division. I don't like Quinn or Anderson and I think Braylon will play more like his 2008 version than his 2007 version.
Final Score: Broncos 27 Browns 16
CHICAGO BEARS (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers. Chicago getting points at home? OK, thanks. No Troy hurts the Steelers D and I think Cutler bounces back this week. Lack of Bears LB doesn't hurt them in this game since Fast Willie Parker has turned into Slow Willie Parker.
Final Score: Steelers 21 Bears 20
New York Giants (+3) over DALLAS COWBOYS. The House that Jerry Built opens to a loss. The G-Men are the best team in the NFC right now and the Cowboys got a nice image boost by beating down a bad Tampa Bay team. I think all of the hype of the new stadium hurts the 'Boys and Eli leads his team to victory.
Final Score: Giants 31 Cowboys 21
Indianapolis Colts (-3) over MIAMI DOLPHINS. Lots of 3 point spreads this week, eh? Here is what I think of this game: (1) Indy is a much better team than Miami, who played out of their league last year, (2) Due to the game being in Miami, it will be closer than the talent level of these two teams would indicate, and (3) Addai and Wayne looked great last week and that is huge for Indy. GAMBLERS NOTE: If the field is saturated due to rain, or it is raining hard during the game, take the Dolphins and the under. Better running backs and points at home in the rain = $$$.
Final Score: Colts 27 Dolphins 17
YTD Picks: 0-0
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