NFL Picks - Week 5

Year-to-Date: 32-13-1

Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS. I think Minnesota is one of the best teams in the NFC (up there with the Giants and Bears) and St. Louis is one of the worst teams in the NFC (down there with the Bucs). 10 points, even if it is on the road, is a small enough spread for one of the best teams in the league to beat one of the worst. Typically throughout this season we've seen "top" teams beat "bottom" teams by an average of approximately 20 points.

Cincinnati (+8.5) over BALTIMORE. Ugh, this is a tough one to bet on and I'd recommend staying away from it if at all possible. What I am betting on here is that Cinci's team is legit this year, especially their defense. We've seen Baltimore fail to cover against the Pats and the Chiefs, while the Bengals have only failed to cover against the Poops.

CAROLINA (-4) over Washington. I really think Washington is terrible and will continue to bet against them until they prove me wrong. Ironically, that could be this week whenever they face the Panthers and Delhomme. Please don't fuck this up for me Jake.

DETROIT (+10.5) over Pittsburgh. I think Mendenhall has a big game here but it is not enough to cover the spread. For whatever reason the Pittsburgh defense has let teams back in it during the fourth quarter this year (see: Cinci and SD games) and I think 10.5 is just too much to cover.

Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY. I almost took KC in this one but I didn't because their offense is dreadful. I think Dallas could score 21 points in this game and cover.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-15.5) over Oakland. If for some reason Eli doesn't play, I'm taking Oakland in this one. I took the G-MEN because why the hell would you want to put yourself through 60 minutes of football, watching, hoping that the Raiders would end up covering? That seems like a waste of three hours to me.

PHILADELPHIA (-15.5) over Tampa Bay. Similar to the NYG/OAK game, but in this one you know McNabb is starting. Tampa could cover this one - they looked pretty decent last week, but I'll take the bet on the premise that the Philly/Carolina game was for real and Philly is the dark horse in the NFC this year.

BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland. Not buying into Cleveland - especially without Braylon. Buffalo usually plays well at home, and even though Trent Edwards sucks, he has Owens, Lynch, Jackson, and Evens as weapons. Pretty solid tool shed there for him to work with.

SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over Atlanta. I still think Atlanta is for real, however, San Fran is a very legit team this year and with their exceptional defense, should be able to cover a 2.5 point spread.

Jacksonville (+1) over SEATTLE. Is Hasselbeck starting? If so, take the 'Hawks. If not, this should be an easy win for Jacksonville, even in the hostile environment.

Houston (+5.5) over ARIZONA. I will continue to fade Arizona all year as their post-SB hype is killing their lines. They should be -2.5 in this one at worst.

New England (-3) over DENVER. A tough one to pick, no doubt. Do you take the old man or the young apprentice? I think Denver is pretty lucky to be undefeated at this point, even though the team has been much better than everyone expected this year. New England got a few more players back last week, looked great, and this week should be even more healed up.

Indianapolis (-3.5) over TENNESSEE. Is this line a joke? Indy is so much better than the Titans this year. I think you'd have to be high on multiple substances to take the Titans in this game. Like Jerry Garcia high.

New York Jets (-1.5) over MIAMI. I think this game sets a record for "most players combined from one college" with Michigan being the school. I don't think Braylon has a very big impact in this game, but he does make his presence known. I saw a stat the other day about Chad Henne, and let's just say he doesn't do well under pressure. The Jets bring the most pressure in the league. That's why I'm taking them here.