2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Season Preview

Alright, going to go through a lot of different categories here:

General Strategy

PGs and SF early.

The quality of PGs drops off dramatically after the 5th round. You don't want to be taking Mo Williams in Round 6 or Andre Miller in Round 7, do you? Speaking of PGs, I think the rankings this year are totally out of whack on ESPN. I wouldn't take Billups (19), Kidd (28) over Rondo (29), Calderon (30), or Harris (31). And I sure wouldn't risk Arenas (32) over Rose (36). I also like Westbrook at 49. I'd take him at 40 if he were there, actually.

SFs are a similar story. Do you really want to overspend on Hedo (62), Artest (65), or Marion (78)? Does it scare you that those three are the 9th, 10th, and 12th SFs taken on an average draft position basis? It sure scares me as I don't want any of those on my team. It also doesn't help the position that there really aren't any good late sleepers here, although Ariza (90) and Al Thornton (119) might provide good value.

C, PF, and SG late. Examples of these types of players you can get in rounds 8 and later:

C: Horford (8th), Bogut (10th), Sheed (10th), Oden (11th), Noah (11th), Kaman (11th), Dalembert (12th), Chandler (12th), and Hibbert (13th). (Also note that you can get both Bynum and Okafor in round 7, which isn't bad value either)

PF: Bargnani (8th), Diaw (8th), Blake Griffin (8th), Scola (9th), Anthony Randolph (9th), Millsap (9th), Odom (10th), Love (11th), and Beasley (11th)

SG: JRichardson (8th), Jason Terry (8th), John Salmons (8th), Manu (9th), JR Smith (9th), Josh Howard (9th), Rip Hamilon (9th), Barbosa (12th), Hinrich (12th), Ronnie Brewer (12th), Rudy Fernandez (13th) (Also note that Eric Gordon is available in round 7, which is insane value)

Lots of solid players out there in the later rounds for these positions. And guess what? In fantasy basketball you win your league based on how your top players produce and who nails the later rounds with solid performers / sleepers. Not a lot of solid performers/sleepers out there for the PG and SF position this year, so make sure to get them early.

Auction League Strategy

Pay top dollar for the 6 big players (Lebron, Paul, Durant, Kobe, Wade, and Granger), get cheap players later.

I recently spent about 90% of my salary on five players in an auction draft and the quality of players you will be able to get with the last 10% of your salary will amaze you. I ended up getting "scrubs" such as Ray Allen, Tony Parker, Villanueva, Chalmers, Bogut, Kirilenko, and Brad Miller.

Sleepers (Note: Only looking at 6th round and later)

Andrew Bynum (7th Round): Look, if he can stay healthy all year he's going to average 20/10 with a couple of blocks. That is approx. what Tim Duncan did last year and he's a 2nd round pick this year (with most people expecting a slight drop off). Whenever Bynum is healthy he's a second round talent. If he blows out his knee again in January this year, hopefully he's helped your team to a solid record over the course of 8-12 weeks and you can afford losing your 7th round pick. Lots of upside here and little downside here for a 7th round pick (when I believe he was a 3rd/4th round pick last year).

Eric Gordon (7th Round): His averages last year aren't as good as they should be because he spent the first month of the season on the bench. I don't think he'll score as much as he did last year when he started (hello resurgent Baron Davis and Blake Griffin), but he'll produce more assists and rebounds. A great value here - I think he's a 4th round / 5th round talent at worst.

Al Horford / Blake Griffin / Luis Scola (8th/9th Rounds): I like all of these guys about the same. They should produce some points (lesser so in Horford's case), rebounds (all strong), and blocks (lesser so for Griffin). They should also have excellent percentages (especially Scola). They won't win you the league, but they can be counted on to provide solid numbers throughout the year (with a little bit of an injury concern for Horford and Griffin).

Anthony Randolph (9th Round): Shouldn't be a surprise here. This guy is a lock for 15 points, 10 rebounds, and a couple of blocks per game if he gets the minutes he deserves.

Joakim Noah (11th Round): Has absolutely been tearing it up in the preseason this year after impressing in the playoffs last year. I think he's good for about 10-12 points and 10-15 rebounds per game. Add in a couple of blocks and you're set for a late round center pick. Percentages won't be great, however.

Nate Robinson (11th Round): 11th round pick for 6th round talent? I'll buy that. I don't think his numbers are any worse than last year. In turnover leagues he's even more valuable because he just doesn't turn the ball over. I would draft him more as a SG than a PG seeing as how he has a high number of Threes and a low number of assists.

Tyreke Evans (12th Round): My pick for Rookie of the Year, barely edging out Blake Griffin. This guy can do it all (which appearently includes killing people, on and off the court). I think his percentages are a little low, but he can score, grab boards, get assists, and generate steals and blocks. Great value here for someone that could be a 3rd round pick next year.

Busts (Note: Only looking at 5th round and earlier)

Bosh / Amare / Al Jefferson (Late 1st / Early 2nd): I seriously hope I don't draft at #10 through #12 this year in our "pay" league. I don't like any of these guys. I guess I'd take Bosh first since he represents the least risk, while Jefferson has the most upside. I'm not taking Amare unless he falls to the third round. Jefferson's ability to come back from the achilles injury scares me a lot and that is why he is here. Bosh doesn't get enough blocks (1.0 per game) to justify his high draft status.

Kevin Garnett (2nd Round): I'm not taking him this year at all. He has staples in his knee, man. I don't see him returning to form. Getting 15 points and 7 rebounds per game out of him would be generous. In fact, I'd rather have Luis Scola on my team this year. He'll be ranked higher at season's end - mark my words.

Gilbert Arenas (4th Round): I'm not betting my fourth round pick on someone who is either going to make or break my season on a crappy team in DC. Does not make any sense to me whatsoever to take him in front of D Rose.

David Lee (4th Round): I won't be spending a fourth round pick on someone who gets average points (~16 per game) and a bunch of rebounds. Rebounds are plentiful, especially among PFs who are available in later rounds. If Kevin Love weren't hurt to start the season, I'd take him over Lee. And he was going in round 10 BEFORE his injury. Way too high for Lee here, especially given the fact that it took the Knicks so long to resign him during the offseason.

Ben Gordon (5th Round): Too much depth at SG this year to justify taking him this early. Also, when you think about it - he's a SG and so is Rip Hamilton. This could be bad news for Gordon's fantasy season. We all know how well the Iverson/Rip thing worked out last year. Not good.