NFL Picks - Week 9

Miami (+10.5) over NEW ENGLAND. Simply too many points here. If the Dolphins were a bad team (see: Tennessee) this would be easy money betting on the Pats. Unfortunately they are not a bad team, but not a really good team either. This is a good spread, IMO. I'll take Miami since I don't think New England scores a ton of points.

JACKSONVILLE (-6.5) over Kansas City. Another game I want to barf on more than I want to bet on. I think MJD scores a couple of TDs in this game and the Jags win by 7-10 points.

Baltimore (-3) over CINCINNATI. This game puts the Bengals into "pretender" land instead of "contender". I like what Baltimore has done over the past few weeks. Getting Ray Rice and Joe Flacco in the same draft is going to carry this team for the next five years - in which they should win a Super Bowl assuming they can replace some of their older players (Ray Lewis I'm looking at you) on D.

Green Bay (-10) over TAMPA BAY. I like this bet a lot. I think this is a case of "Vegas can't put the line high enough for Tampa Bay". If it were -14.5 I would think about betting on the Bucs, but they are the worst team in football right now, so why are they only laying 10 points to a team with a deadly offense? I don't get it.

Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO. I think Cutler has a down game here, and Warner has a decent one. That's really my only reasoning here. It also helps that somehow Arizona's RBs have been more effective than Forte this year. Very odd.

ATLANTA (-9.5) over Washington. Washington is bad. Atlanta is not.

Houston (+9) over INDY. I like what Schaub has been doing this year - the best QB pick without a doubt in fantasy football. Andre Johnson should be healed up for this game and the Colts are without Marlin Jackson, Bob Sanders, and Anthony Gonzalez (aka the Big 10 special).

NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Carolina. I'm going to call this my lock of the week. Jake Delhomme is picked three times and Brees throws for 3 TDs. The three headed monster of NO backs scores a couple of TDs in route to a big win here. Steve Smith agains contemplating putting a bounty on Delhomme's head.

SEATTLE (-10) over Detroit. Quest field is a tough place to play and the Lions are bad and banged up (will Kevin Smith or Calvin Johnson play? Why would they?). Seattle big here. Hasselbeck with a nice fantasy day (250 plus yards and 2-3 TDs).

SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Tennessee. In the words of Bill Simmons, "are we really that afraid of Chris Johnson?" He's had two amazing games this year, and surprisingly, TEN only covered in one of those games. San Fran's D is legit, and their passing attack is much better with Smith. Crabtree is doing unbelievable things for a rookie WR holdout as well.

San Diego (+4.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS. Philip Rivers birthday given that the Giants' secondary is so bad / banged up. Big day for him.

PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas. I'm predicting a bad day for Romo here. McNabb does enough to win this game. Miles Austin - I hate you.

DENVER (+3) over Pittsburgh. I think Pitt is the better team, but Denver is solid as well and getting points at home? That should be enough of a reason to take them here.