Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Early Season Fantasy Basketball Review

Players I Wish I Had I Drafted:

1) Carmelo Anthony. I bet he finishes with better fantasy numbers than Danny Granger. Even though he was taken 2-3 rounds later. He's on fire this season and it's an extension of what he did last year. Undoubtedly having Billups (his first real PG) helps him a ton, plus he seems motivated for the first time in his career. I think Denver was not just benefitting "everything going right for them last season" as Bill Simmons would write, but a character change from adding Billups / Carmelo taking his game to the next level.

2) Kevin Martin. Who else from Sacramento is going to score? Anyone? He could average 30 points a game this year, as well as 3 three pointers per game. That would be huge for a guy you didn't have to take in the first three rounds.

3) Channing Frye. 4.3 threes per game from a PF/C? You have to be kidding me. Eventually this has to drop off, but damn - that's something you can't ignore. He's also getting minutes (30 per game) and was basically undrafted in most leagues. He might be worth more than Amare this year. No joke.

4) Larry Hughes. It's been a crazy NBA season thus far when you see Hughes and Frye on this list. Why do I like him? He's getting minutes (38 per game, wow), and turning them into points (19 pg), threes (2 pg), rebounds (4), assists (4), and steals (3). Could cool off later in the year, but again - this is a waiver wire guy who's in the top 10.

5) Louis Williams. Should have seen this coming with the Andre Miller departure. He's not getting enough assists (5 per game), but making up for that in points, rebounds, threes, steals, and very high percentages (over .600 FG% thus far - amazing). He will cool off has his FGs stop dropping, but definitely a top 10 PG this year.

Others - Danilo Gallinari, Marc Gasol, Andre Blatche, and Aaron Brooks. All guys that you could have had in the 10th round or later that are currently putting up third round or better production. All are getting solid minutes, too. Danilo is the wild card here as I don't trust the Knicks too much, but the others will be solid guys that will help you win a title this year.

Guys I'd Hit the Panic Button On

1) Danny Granger. Sure the points are there (over 26 per game), but where are the rebounds (4.5 pg) and assists (2 pg)? He'll be a top 50 player no doubt, but top 5? I don't think so. And he was being drafted there. In fact, one guy took him #1 overall in one of my drafts. He'll be regretting that all year.

2) Amare Stoudemire. Getting drafted around 10th this year - he won't put up that production. People are starting to realize he's not all that he's cracked up to be, and with the emergence of Channing Frye (the future in Phoenix, seeing as how Amare will leave this summer) he loses value. I expect him to be in the 50th-75th range this year. A total fantasy team killer.

3) Caron Butler. 10.5 points per game in two games thus far. Not good. I never thought he deserved a high draft pick in the first place (top 30) given that Arenas aka Captain Ballhog was going to be back. What I'm wondering right now though is how he has managed to score 21 points this season thus far without having Jamison there to steal away scoring opportunities. And Washington sucks.

4) Andre Miller. Taken in the top 70 in many drafts and he isn't fitting in at all with his new team. This is the first player on the list I might actually consider dropping. He's a horrible fit with his new team (not even starting) and it doesn't look like it's going to get better. 6 points per game and 3 assists. That's what you've gotten him thus far. Terrible.

5) T.J. Ford. Taken in the top 100 but putting up 350ish stats thus far. His minutes are down (20 per game), and his stats aren't good at all - percentages suck, not scoring, and not dishing. Doesn't seem to be fitting in well with Indiana right now as Danny Granger attempts to take all the shots.

Others: Darko.

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